- climbs 15 points to 8,520
- Earlier index notches new intra-day record high
- Housing markets starts 2025 with a bang, says Rightmove (LON:)
- US markets closed later for MLK day, also Trump’s inauguration
4.50pm: FTSE 100 sets new record closing value
The FTSE 100 closed Monday’s trading in record territory once again, having climbed 15 points at 8,520.
4.06pm: Gains for European stocks, but not as much as earlier
London’s blue-chip index has pulled back from its intra-day record high and is looking like finishing in unremarkable style as eyes turn fully now, if they weren’t before, to Washington DC.
Donald Trump has arrived at the Capitol for the inauguration, TV feeds showed a few minutes ago.
Financial markets gained earlier on reports that the President-elect’s plans for 100 executive orders on his first day did not include immediate tariffs. This sent the dollar lower.
Miners Anglo American (LON:) and Fresnillo are top of the FTSE leaderboard, along with aerospace parts maker Melrose , paper and packaging maker Mondi (LON:) and valve engineer Spirax .
European markets have also been unable to hold onto all their gains too, but the is up 0.5%, the CAC 40 is up 0.3% and the is slightly above flat.
has also had its earlier spike pared back, now at $104,693 and flat over 24 hours.
Everyone’s favourite crypto is the Melania Trump meme coin (hashtag MELANIA) which has a total worth (or market cap as crypto bros like to wrongly call it) of $1.5 billion, while the official commemorative Trump meme coin has a value of just under $10 billion.
3.17pm: Trumpilocks?
“You remember Goldilocks, that time when the market backdrop looked quasi-perfect, both for fixed income and equities?” says Benoit Anne, strategist at MFS Investment Management.
“Well, it is gone. We are moving to a new macro regime, which I have labelled Trumpilocks.”
But Anna says this is “not all about Trump 2.0 and its impact, although that bit plays a big role”.
Other factors are that the US Federal Reserve has hit the breaks as a result of stronger expected economic activity and slower progress towards disinflation.
Under Trumpilocks, Anna says it is “much harder” to have high conviction about investments, with a number of risks that may cloud the backdrop and bring concerns over market valuations.
As for bonds, he says “the great bifurcation” as the world has become unsynchronized, with the eurozone remaining more in Goldilocks mode from a fixed income standpoint, given the need for the ECB to go ahead with its policy easing.
“This actually represents a potentially fertile environment for a global active asset manager, as there should be plenty of relative value opportunities and dislocations in the period ahead,” he says, even if macro volatility is expected to remain elevated.
This week is going to be “a heavy one” on the US politics and policy fronts, and therefore “a near-term spike in rate volatility appears likely.”
Anne says recession risks for the US are as low as they have been since May 2022, and the main risk at this juncture “is that the US economy may tip into overheating, which would likely undermine global risk appetite”.
GDP ‘nowcast’ projections from the Atlanta and New York Fed point to a 3% growth estimate for Q4-2024, which would be the third quarter in a row with GDP growth exceeding 3% and begs the question whether the US has shifted to a structurally higher growth trajectory, he adds.
“If it does, this is great news for risky and growth assets. This is because by now, one should have expected some sort of slowdown, but no such thing so far.
“In contrast, the growth outlook for the Eurozone is a lot gloomier, and the near-term dynamics is the exact opposite of what we are observing in the US.”
2.53pm: New FTSE high
The FTSE 100 has set a new all-time intraday high, just below 8,547.
This edges past the intraday high from last Friday of 8,533.4.
Although four of the index’s top 10 largest companies are in the red, including AstraZeneca (LON:) and BP (LON:), they are the only ones in the top 30.
Top of the leaderboard is Melrose Industries (LON:) PLC, followed by Mondi and St James (LON:)’s Place.
Some of the “optimism in risk sentiment” from Trump’s incoming inauguration has seeped into other markets, says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
“For example, the Trump policies linked to deregulation in the energy sector and the financial sector, are all positive for the FTSE 100.
“The UK index has a large energy sector, and Trump’s preference for hydrocarbons could boost UK oil majors.”
UK regulators also appear to be taking the lead from the US loosening, she notes, which has lifted bank stocks.
At the end of last week the Bank of England’s regulator arm, the PRA, announced another delay for Basel capital requirement rules, in consultation with HM Treasury, pushing it out to 2027.
Shares in Barclays PLC (NYSE:) have reached their highest level since 2010, while Lloyds Banking Group (LON:) PLC has also recouped losses from last year.
Added to this, Brooks says, Trump’s tariffs plans are “expected to impact the UK lightly, especially compared to Europe and elsewhere, which may also boost the FTSE 100 in the medium term”.
2.10pm: Oil prices also fall
Oil prices have also dropped back from recent highs today, lubricated by speculation that Trump could loosen sanctions against Russia.
, which had risen from $72 per barrel at the start of December to a five-month high around $82.50 last week, dropped below $80 in the past hour.
Gains had been made last week fueled by new sanctions from outgoing president Joe Biden against 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers.
According to ANZ analysts, such a row back could mean recent upward pressure is short-lived, including if Trump were to relax rules in line with previous pledges to bring a quick end to the Ukraine war.
Trump is expected to sign up to several hundred executive orders in quick succession after his inauguration on Monday, with energy sector deregulation set to be in focus.
1.52pm: Dollar drops on Trump tariff report
has dropped after a report from the Wall Street Journal that Donald Trump will not impose tariffs immediately.
President-elect Trump aims to issue “a broad memorandum” today, the paper said, but there will not be new tariffs imposed on his first day in office.
Today’s presidential memo will directs federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate trade relationships with China, Canada and Mexico to come up with measures to balance out persistent trade deficits or areas of “unfair trade and currency policies by other nations”.
Agencies will be asked to assess whether China is complying with a 2020 trade deal, as well as whether any changes need to be made with Mexico and Canada under Trump’s North American Free Trade Agreement ahead of a scheduled review in 2026.
The euro has jumped 1.2% against the dollar and the pound 1.05%, recovering from recent lows.
12.49pm: Entain (LON:) in spotlight due to auditor probe
Entain PLC shares are down 1.25% on news that accountant KPMG is facing a probe into how it conducted the audit of the bookmaker’s 2022 numbers.
The Financial Reporting Council said it had launched an investigation into KPMG’s work on Entain’s accounts.
A spokesman for KPMG, which has been Entain’s auditor since 2018, said: “We will cooperate fully with the FRC to conclude this matter as quickly as possible.”
The Ladbrokes and Corals owner appointed Gavin Issac as its new chief executive in 2024 after it paid £615 million to settle an HMRC investigation into alleged bribery at a former Turkish subsidiary in 2017.
Analysts at Peel Hunt (LON:) said “it is hard to know if the investigation is price-sensitive or material” and until there is more information, analysts “expect the market to assume that it is, and for the share price to see some weakness”.
“However, it was only on 13 January that Entain confirmed its guidance for FY24, and we take some comfort from the fact that gambling is an almost entirely cash business so there should not be uncertainty over judgements relating to, for example, the value of long-term contracts or asset values.”
12.10pm: FTSE update
At midday, the FTSE 100 is up a few points but off its earlier highs above 8,533, which were less than a point from a new all-time intraday record.
British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group (LON:) SA (LSE:IAG) is battling Fresnillo PLC (LON:) at the top of the leaderboard now, with Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square (LON:) Holdings (LSE:PSH) not far behind.
Also among the risers are several stocks moving on broker comments on this quiet day.
Melrose Industries PLC is up as comments from Citi this morning from analysts that that having spent last week in New York meeting investors.
The GKN (LON:) Aerospace owner was one of the ones that saw most interest due to expectations of strong mid-term cash flows. “We received particular interest in company mid-term targets which we expect to be delivered in March,” the analysts said.
Kingfisher (LON:) PLC is a riser, even though JPMorgan (NYSE:) analysts say in a note this morning that they are “reluctant to recommend buying the UK sector on recent weakness, and instead see the earnings risk as being to the downside as the year progresses”, with Kingfisher and AB Foods (LON:) “most at risk”.
Spirax-Sarco Engineering (LSE:LON:) is another on the front foot, helped by Jefferies having upgraded the stock, making it one of only two ‘buy’ ratings among its “metal basher” coverage.
11.54am: Trump views
Latest City thoughts on Trump.
“The closure of US markets for MLK day helps provide a delayed reaction to today’s inauguration ceremony, with markets hanging on the every word of the President,” says Josh Mahony at Scope Markets.
Trump has been grabbing headlines over the weekend with the meme coins understandably, which Mahony says has come in for plenty of criticism.
“Nonetheless, his promise to enact close to 100 executive orders on day one means that traders and investors will have plenty to sink their teeth into as they weigh up the potential winners and losers.
“Crucially Trump’s words could help allay some of the fears that have been inherent within financial markets of late, as claims of constructive discussions with Xi Jinping signalling a potentially less combative approach to tariffs than feared.”
At Daiwa, analysts say Trump orders to boost US energy production and seek to secure the southern border seem inevitable.
“But against the backdrop of the sharp rise in global bond yields since November’s election, and given their potential impact on US inflation and global economic activity, the specificities of the President’s plans for tariffs will be most keenly watched by global investors.
“Of course, there appear a range of possibilities with respect to the extent and pace of the initial steps being assessed.”
Holger Schmieding at Berenberg says key initiatives such as deregulation of the energy and other sectors are likely to start with some executive orders upon taking office today, while tax cuts may be passed by Congress and enacted by mid-year.
The US economist is expected to grow 2.1% this year, but Schmieding thinks it will be more.
“Longer-term, however, higher tariffs and less immigration (first measures also likely today) as well as an apparent penchant for crony capitalism coupled with political polarisation and an inclination to disregard rules and conventions he does not like can impair the supply side of the economy,” he adds.
“Put differently, we do not project Trump to do all he has announced or threatened during his campaign. Some disruption may even be quite useful, including the very open pressure on Europe to do more for its own defence – and for that of Ukraine.”
Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank says: “Trump policies are expected to be a double-edged sword. His pro-growth policies and deregulation are expected to benefit to the US economy but his tariff policies will certainly lead inflation higher and soften the Fed doves’ hands for easing policy. In addition, exploding debt levels will likely further push the borrowing costs higher.”
Vince Truong at GSB says: “US equities are a whirlpool sucking assets away from other countries as market participants largely expect pro-growth policies in the US. This is one among other reasons why US equities outperformed last year, and especially post-election.”
The US dollar strengthening is because is partly in “anticipation of potentially higher tariffs, leading to higher inflation, leading to higher interest rates and thus a strong dollar. So, the market is frontrunning these events.”
11.34am: Working from home ‘not proper work’
Want to hear what Stuart Rose, the former boss of Marks and Spencer (LON:) Group PLC and Asda has to say about working from home?
If you do, he reckons it has meant a generation of people “not doing proper work”.
Obviously it doesn’t make sense for most of the retail sector, but Rose has told the BBC that it has harmed the UK’s productivity [many people, including me say it has improved theirs] and “regressed… working practices, productivity and in terms of the country’s wellbeing, I think, by 20 years in the last four”.
It comes as many companies, especially US-headquartered ones like JP Morgan and Amazon (NASDAQ:), have told staff they must attend work in person five days a week.
Citigroup (NYSE:) last week said it would spend £1bn to renovate its offices in London as part of the push to get workers back.
11.03am: Chancellor building ties with money men
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will hold talks with several top Wall Street figures this week as she builds more links with the US as a new administration takes power.
She will be at a JP Morgan breakfast meeting in Davos later this week, Sky News has reported, along with the US bank’s European chief as well as senior people from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:), Citi and Franklin Templeton from US firms.
Reeves will use event to talk up the government’s economic agenda, Sky says.
UK gilt yields are creeping back up again today, having dropped back last week.
10.50am: China in a bottle
China’s birth rate seems to be stabilising after years of strong year-on year-declines.
Barclays (LON:) analysts say this has ramifications for the baby food market, in particular noting Danone (LON:), Nestle (NSE:) and A2 Milk who have “material presence” in China.
“We suspect debate will shift to whether the circa 6% birth rate uptick is a bend in the trend or a mostly horoscope impact,” the analysts said.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said birth rate rose 6% in 2024 to 9.45 million, the first year-on-year increase in eight years.
It will presumably have an impact on many other parts of the economy that just baby formula in time too.
10.06am: What if Santander sold its UK arm?
Shares in Santander are up 2.4% in London and 1.5% in Spain after the reports that is mulling an exit from the UK among a number of strategic options it is exploring for its UK subsidiary, Citi analysts have some reaction this morning.
The official response to the report in the FT was that Banco Santander (BME:) said “the UK is a core market”.
Citi analyst Marta Sanchez Romero says the Spanish bank is “struggling to turnaround a subpar deposit franchise”.
Despite the balance sheet optimisation strategy launched in 2023 that has resulted in a 9% drop in the mortgage book, Santander UK’s return on tangible equity has narrowed to circa 10% from 14% in 2022.
Looking at possible scenarios of the exit, the analyst calculates the impact on group’s capital CET1 levels from selling the UK business at a price range between 0.0-1.0x book value (like last year’s Virgin Money-Nationwide transaction at 0.7x) this would free up about 75 basis points of capital and leave it with €3.7 billion surplus capital.
9.52am: FTSE near all-time high
The FTSE has come close to a new record intraday high this morning, topping 8,530 a few times but not quite the 8,533.43 all-time peak from Friday.
Meanwhile, the is down 0.5%, led by a 4.2% decline for Trainline PLC (LON:), followed by 2%-plus falls for Grainger PLC, Workspace (LON:), Greggs (LON:) and Bakkavor.
Over in Europe, the big indices are in green, though with the DAX less than 0.1% higher, up 0.3% and the pan-European Euro STOXX 600 up 0.1%.
9.21am: Reach for the stars
Reach, the Mirror and Express newspaper publisher, shares are one of the biggest risers this morning, despite the mixed update earlier.
The shares are up 24%.
The biggest riser is Enteq Technologies PLC, which has soared 57% after the company hung up the ‘for sale’ sign.
Amid challenging market conditions and tight cash balances, which stand at almost $1 million, the company has been exploring its options and is currently in discussions with two potential buyers, it says.
Another is Quantum Blockchain Technologies PLC (LON:) (AIM:QBT), up 35%. At the end of last week it said it filed a patent application for its AI Oracle (NYSE:) technology, which enhances the efficiency of chips used in Bitcoin mining.
Leading the fallers is Pod Point Group Holdings PLC (LSE:LON:), down 40% after it said the continued challenging backdrop means it expects 2025 results to be below current market expectations.
“The recent Government consultation on the zero emission vehicle mandate could further increase near-term uncertainty for the sector,” the charging solution provider warned.
8.56am: Bitcoin surges to new high
Bitcoin has surged to a new high in the past couple of hours, with and also on the up, along with the #MELANIA meme-coin.
BTC has climbed above $108K, a 3.6% gain over 24 hours, after falling below $100K overnight.
Some thoughts from market analyst Kyle Rodda at Capital.com.
“A reportedly positive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping sparked a fresh rally on Wall Street, along with European indices, with several of the latter hitting record highs.
“Bitcoin also surged and prices appear to be breaking-out after a period of consolidation.
“The price action reveals one of the major headwinds to global equities: Trump’s trade-wars and tariffs, especially on China. It’s particularly telling that Asian indices ought to open firmer today because of the news, having barely moved after much stronger than expected Chinese growth data on Friday.
“Combined with diminished fears about stickier and even re-accelerating inflation, the amicable call between Trump and Xi, while only a temporary reprieve amidst irrevocable strategic competition, is extra fuel to reignite bullishness in equities.”
In a note last week, Deutsche Bank (ETR:) noted that the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, “exhibited remarkable dynamics” in the final quarter of 2024. with Bitcoin prices increasing 120% over the year 2024 and 33% since the November Trump victory.
Last week saw what it called “a notable cooling period,” with prices retreating to $90,000 at the start of the week, marking a 17.5% decline from the peak, while the previous week US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their second-largest outflow since their inception, with investors withdrawing a net $583mn on a single day.
9.44am: TikTok US lives
From memes to social media, especially for those who like me like to switch off from financial news over the weekend and those looking for their morning short video hit.
TikTok’s US users have breathed a sigh of relief after the US President-elect announced plans to issue an executive order delaying a recently enacted ban on the app.
The ruling, upheld by the Supreme Court last week, requires TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance to sell its US operations or be shut down over national security concerns.
The Biden administration decided not to enforce the ban in its final hours, meaning TikTok went offline Saturday evening.
But Trump’s intervention came on Sunday morning, leading to the app’s swift restoration.
8.33am: Trumps issue commemorative meme-coins
Stock markets are quiet, but the action is rarely subdued in the world of crypto.
Making another foray into the world of digital currencies, Donald Trump has been joined by his wife in taking presidential commemorative coins into a new dimension.
It used to be that a long-serving or outstanding former leader of the free world would see their likeness minted in gold to commemorate their tenure, normally after leaving office.
But over the weekend, the Trumps decided to dispense with these formalities ahead of the Donald’s inauguration, with the President-elect’s $Trump meme coin issued and returning first lady Melania launching her own, $Melania, to boot.
Can you guess how their prices have done so far? (Trump memecoin here, Melania memecoin here if you care.)
Bitcoin has also been on the rise, more on that soon.
8.12am: FTSE starts higher
The FTSE 100 has climbed higher in initial trading on Monday, though not breached the intra-day highs seen at previous session.
It made an early gain of eight points to reach 8,513.2. Last Friday, the London index topped out at 8,533 at one point.
Top early risers are Fresnillio PLC, the precious metals miner, up 2.4%, followed by National Grid (LON:) PLC, some retailers and financials.
7.43am: Reach for some spare cash
In company news, Reach PLC (LON:), the owner of daily newspapers including the Mirror, Express and swathes of regional clickbait websites, has put out a mixed update.
On the bad side, it will have to shell out £5 million after a “historical error” was discovered in a pension scheme that was taken over as part of the Express acquisition in 2018.
But on the other side of the coin, Reach reported that the last few months of 2024 were “strong” and it expects to “deliver results ahead of current market expectations for the full year”…read more
7.27am: House prices start 2025 with a bang
More on those UK house prices.
New seller asking prices bounced back from the usual seasonal fall in December to start 2025 with new sellers active in recent weeks.
A record number of new houses came to market on Boxing Day itself and since, says Rightmove, with an 11% increase in the number of new properties coming to market compared to the same period at the start of last year.
Also, the average number of homes for sale per estate agency branch is currently at the highest for this time of year in 10 years, though average asking prices are still almost £9K below May 2024’s peak.
The house-buying website said there seems to be pent-up demand to move, with more choice for buyers contributing to increases in buyer enquiries and sales agreed compared to a year ago.
This has also resulted in elevated competition between sellers to attract buyers, with Rightmove saying some sellers “may find that they have been too optimistic on their initial pricing”.
“New sellers have started the year with a bang,” says Colleen Babcock (LON:), Rightmove property expert, adding that given the higher-than-anticipated seller competition she expects the strong start on pricing “to slow down over the next few months”.
“With lots of homes for buyers to consider, sellers will need to work even harder to stand out from the crowd and attract a buyer.”
7.16am: FTSE seen retreating
The FTSE 100 is expected to step back on Monday morning and admire its record high from last week, and then later to watch what new directives are issued following the inauguration ceremony of Donald Trump as US president.
Futures markets have called London’s blue-chip index 21 points lower, after it added 113 points or 1.35% to finish last week at an all-time closing high of 8,505.1, adding 257 or 3.1% over the whole week.
In Asian markets this morning there seems to be a positive mood from the pre-inauguration talks between Trump and China’s President Xi at the end of last week.
The is up 2.3% and the 0.5%, while elsewhere the is up 1.3% and ASX up 0.5%.
US stock markets are on holiday today, but later in the week will be busy studying the numbers from 40 companies from the S&P 500 reporting earnings.
Back in the UK, average house price data for new homes coming to market showed a 1.7% rise this month to £366,189, according to Rightmove, the largest monthly jump in prices at the start of the year since 2020.
5am: What to watch on Monday:
Monday will see Donald Trump’s inauguration in focus as the president-elect returns to the White House for a second term.
Eyes will be on any rapid executive orders, after Trump has signalled plans for the likes of sweeping tariffs and energy sector deregulation.
Announcements due:
Trading updates: Midwich Group PLC
AGMs: B&M European Value Retail SA
US MARKETS CLOSED
