Trump tariffs and trade wars continue to dominate the market, and we have seen a strong sell-off in the US dollar recently. This reinforces the idea that the US may not win this battle easily, as some other countries have already responded and are trying to hit back. So it’s not a surprise that in this uncertainty stocks are also in a consolidation, but approaching a potential support.
Finally, the USD is coming down, now breaking some key support at 106 which is an important indication for a resumption of a downtrend, especially if we consider that the current sell-off is sharp and can be third of a third wave, so a bearish trend can stay in play for much lower levels. In fact, we think that an important dollar top is in, and that more weakness will follow. Because when looking at the daily chart, we still believe that the recovery is C wave, which can come to an end now, in the first half of this year, to complete a corrective rise from the 2023 lows. However, a break below 106 would be needed to confirm the resumption of the downtrend.
For a detailed view and more analysis like this, you may want to watch below our latest recording of a live webinar streamed on March 03 2025:
