The market is moving fast for the Seattle Seahawks and their suddenly-open starting quarterback job. The Geno Smith trade to Pete Carroll, Tom Brady and the Las Vegas Raiders won’t become official until the new league year begins on Wednesday, but it sounds like Seattle might already have his successor in place by then.
Since the initial report of the Smith deal going down, one name has surfaced as connected to the Seahawks. That trend has continued today, as every indication from league-wide insiders is that the front office has identified Sam Darnold as their number one target.
WIth the Vikings reportedly bowing out of that race and mutual interest on Darnold’s part, it sounds like the Seahawks are in the lead to sign the top free agent quarterback in the class of 2025.
So, what would a new deal for Darnold look like? That remains to be seen, but we at least have some idea of how much the Seahawks are willing to pay for a quarterback this year based on what’s been reported about the failed negotiations between Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Apparently Smith’s camp was pushing for an average of $45 million per year, while the team preferred a deal closer to $35 million a year.
That gap was big enough for the Seahawks to take the Raiders’ interest in Smith seriously, and a deal came together very quickly, less than two days after Smith requested a trade.
So, if we know the Seahawks won’t pay $45 million for Smith we can reasonably infer that they won’t be giving Sam Darnold a deal worth that much, even if he is seven years younger. The other factor working against Darnold is that as impressive as his 2024 season was it’s a small sample size compared to the rest of his NFL career, which had been pretty ugly.
Our best guess is that if the Seahawks do sign Darnold, it will look pretty similar to the deal that Geno Smith agreed to three years ago. As always there were misleading numbers paraded around to misrepresent the true value of the deal, which came down to three years for $25 million a year.
Darnold’s contract will be worth more than that thanks to inflation and his upside. Our best guess is that he’ll wind up signing a contract for three years and around $100 to $111 million, or roughly about $33 – $37 million per year.
Like the Geno deal, that would represent a really good value contract given Darnold’s skillset and experience – especially compared to what the 49ers are about to be paying Brock Purdy. That’s a significant space to exploit between the Seahawks and their most-bitter rivals – and how they fill it will go a long way towards determining where they finish in 2025 and beyond.
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