Markets are settling into ranges as investors curb risk-taking ahead of the FOMC. Stocks are trading narrowly after yesterday’s US market declines. Bonds are a little softer in Europe while Treasurys are steady. Caution has given the USD a broad— short-covering—lift versus the majors. The main market mover is Turkey where the TRY and local bonds plunged on renewed domestic political risk, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
USD firmer as markets trade cautiously into Fed decision
“There does appear to be a lot of uncertainty about what the Fed will deliver today. No change in policy is expected but rather more interest will be in how Fed Chair Powell articulates the risks around the outlook as the economy appears at risk of weakening sharply in Q1 amid uncertainty over US trade policy while core PCE remains sticky and inflation expectations have jumped as consumers fret about the impact of tariffs.”
“Swaps reflect a little more than 50bps of anticipated easing this year so what the dot plot implies in this respect will be key to how the USD reacts. It’s hard seeing the Fed sound more hawkish at this point but that might be what the USD needs to stage any sort of major turnaround. The Fed is the main event today but the late afternoon release of the January Treasury International Capital (TIC) flows data may warrant some attention.”
“Net inflows have been positive, if slowing after a sharp increase in net inflows last September, but December’s data reflected the largest ever one-month net outflow but official (i.e., central banks etc.) accounts from US assets. Earlier, the BoJ left policy unchanged, as expected. More tightening seems likely (possibly at the next policy decision), given rising wages and upside risks to the inflation outlook.”
