Indian stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday amid muted global cues. Traders back home will react to numbers of heavyweights including RIL, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and others. The delayed trade deal between the US and India and consistent FIIs selling its denting the sentiments at Dalal Street.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 38.80 points, or 0.16 per cent, down at 24,993.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares and the yen held their ground on Monday. Japanese markets observed a holiday on Monday, while Hang Seng and KOSPI gained up to half a per cent.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, “We expect the market to remain in consolidation mode amid continued global trade uncertainty and a subdued start to the Q1FY26 earnings season. Going forward, the banking sector will continue to be in focus.”
Wall Street stocks ended little changed on Friday, overcoming a brief dip. The S&P 500 lost 0.57 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 6,296.79, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 10.01 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 20,895.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 142.30 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 44,342.19.
The Indian rupee will likely take cues from how far the dollar’s nascent recovery extends this week, while bonds will move based on expectations of interest rate cuts by the local central bank. The dollar index was a fraction lower at 98.40.
In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $3,348 an ounce. Oil prices were caught between the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ and the risk European Union sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could curb its exports. Brent edged up 0.1 per cent to $69.36 a barrel, while US crude added 0.1 per cent to $67.39 per barrel.
All eyes will remain on the ongoing earnings season, with a series of major results lined up. Investors will first react to the results of heavyweights, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Key data points such as India’s Infrastructure Output and HSBC Flash PMI numbers for Manufacturing, Services, and Composite will be keenly tracked On the macroeconomic front.”
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 374.74 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,103.51 crore on a net-net basis. Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 5,524 crore from Indian equities in July 2025 so far.
It is important to understand that FPIs were consistent investors in the primary market even while selling in the cash market through exchanges, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “The important takeaway from this dualistic behaviour of the FPIs is that whenever valuations get stretched in the secondary market,” he said.
Nifty & Sensex outlook
Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities believes that the short-term market texture is weak, but a fresh sell-off is possible only after the dismissal of 24,900/81,600. Below this level, the market is likely to retest the levels of 24,600–24,500/80,700-80,400.
“On the flip side, the 50-day SMA or 25,050/82,100 and 25,100/82,300 would act as crucial resistance zones for short-term traders. If the market manages to trade above 25,100/82,300, it could bounce back to the 20-day SMA or 25,320/83,000. Further upside potential could lift the index up to 25,450–25,500/83400-83,600,” he added.
The Nifty has entered a crucial demand zone between 25,000 and 24,770, which is expected to act as immediate support. Any bullish reversal from this zone could lead to a fresh rally in the coming weeks, said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking. “Despite the price correction, falling volume suggests that the decline lacks aggressive selling pressure, which indicates that overall trend structure remains bullish,” he said.
Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a sizable bear candle signaling profit booking at higher levels for the second session in a row, said Bajaj Broking. “A follow through weakness will open further downside towards 55,000 levels. Key short-term term support is placed at 56,000–55,500 region, representing a confluence of the 50-day EMA and the key retracement level,” it said.
Nifty Bank signaled short-term weakness and the ascending trendline, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. “Key support is placed at 56,000; a decisive break may lead to 55,500. On the upside, 56,700 acts as immediate resistance, and a breakout above this could reignite buying interest, targeting 57,100. Traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips approach,” he said.
Disclaimer: Business Today provides stock market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
