On the downside, a break below 97.412 could trigger a sharper sell-off toward the 96.377–96.218 support zone.
Government Shutdown Fuels Uncertainty, Data Blackout
Traders face rising uncertainty as the U.S. government shutdown enters its third day, creating a blackout in key economic releases. With September’s nonfarm payrolls now unavailable, traders lack key labor market inputs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting.
“We’re not getting any of the data releases we would usually get,” said Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown. This lack of clarity has kept price action subdued and limited the market’s ability to reassess Fed policy expectations.
Soft Labor and Services Data Raise Rate Cut Bets
Despite a stable jobless rate estimate of 4.3% from the Chicago Fed, recent labor data continues to point toward softness. The ADP report showed a 32,000 drop in private payrolls, supporting market bets for further Fed easing.
Traders now price in a near-certainty of a 25-basis-point cut in October and an 89% chance of another cut in December, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan pushed back modestly, stating the job market is cooling gradually, and additional cuts should not be rushed.
