BTC USD has seen quite a bit of volatility lately. Especially yesterday, for some strange reason, when just under $1 billion got liquidated from the crypto market, $830 million of these being longs. Maybe that’s a sign that the sentiment is bullish? Or is it a sign that people are having a hard time shifting their bias?
Institutions, on the other hand, are acting bullish. Take the recent statement from the Bank of America. Is it friendly advice, or an attempt to save someone, or prevent a further downside from happening? There were rumours about $MSTR potentially getting in trouble if drops down to $70,000 or lower. Sayler came back with a claim about reserves being ready. What is moving the markets then? Over the past weeks, there has been mostly selling in the Bitcoin spot ETF. Although the Inflow chart looks close to where it was in the pre-April 2025 pump. Maybe there is hope.
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(Source – Coinglass)
(Source – Tradingview, BTCUSD)
Let us begin our analysis with the Weekly chart. A not so hard to read kind of chart! At least it fits well with our drawings from the previous analysis. For now, the FVG is holding the price boxed in. We also have confluence with the MA100, as indicated last time, to be a potential support. It is still a higher low here, in relation to the March-April 2025 low. Therefore, structurally, the uptrend is still not broken.
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(Source – Tradingview, BTCUSD)
Moving on to the Daily chart, BTC USD is currently printing a bullish engulfing candle. And in the meantime, RSI looks like it bottomed with its oversold area sweep. Long wicks below the candles should signal buyer interest amid seller pressure. Though who has more ammunition is yet to be revealed. The Moving Averages here are all overhead, which is not a very pretty sight. And clearly, we have been making lower lows and lower highs, indicating a trend shift on this timeframe.
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(Source – Tradingview, BTCUSD)
Finally, we will analyse the 4H timeframe for BTC USD. Here we have a higher low formed, followed by a strong move up, neutralising yesterday’s panic. Price is entering above MA50 and MA100, with RSI quickly moving to the strong upper half of its range. Two key levels are $98,000 and $105,000. MA200 could show some resistance signs, but the expectation is that the $7,000 range between the two yellow lines will be tested and potentially form a lower high. A good R:R for a long position was definitely below the last 4H big and strong candle. Here, the R:R is not too great. But being back in the $90,000 range is a good start for bulls.
