Naspers remains backed by strong earnings and its valuable Tencent stake, but renewed selling pressure and concerns over rising AI spending are making a sustained recovery increasingly difficult.
Naspers’ Tencent Deal Created a Historic Investment
Hans Hawinkels played a pivotal role in one of the most successful investments in corporate history when Naspers invested approximately $32 million in Tencent, then a relatively unknown Chinese technology company.
That investment eventually grew into a stake worth around $200 billion at its peak, transforming Naspers into one of South Africa’s most valuable companies.
Yet Hawinkels did not remain at Naspers long enough to enjoy the full benefits of the extraordinary investment. His employment contract expired roughly a year after the Tencent transaction was completed and was not renewed.
Speaking at the BizNews Conference, Hawinkels said he did not know why his contract was not extended, acknowledging that the experience left a lasting impact.
NPN Shares Struggle to Sustain Recovery
Despite Naspers delivering impressive FY26 financial results, its share price has continued to struggle.
NPN shares recently fell sharply below R810 after a strong earnings-driven recovery failed to develop into a sustained rally. The latest weakness highlights the difficulty investors have had in maintaining confidence in the stock despite improving fundamentals.
The recovery has nevertheless found technical support, giving investors some relief. However, the broader price action remains vulnerable while concerns surrounding Tencent and the technology sector persist.
Strong FY26 Results Offer Some Support
Naspers’ financial performance provides an important counterargument to the recent selling pressure.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 84% to $1.3 billion, while ecosystem revenue climbed 53% to $9.7 billion. Free cash flow reached a record $1.5 billion, demonstrating a significant improvement in cash generation.
Core headline earnings per share also increased 24%, while several businesses across delivery, fintech and experiences moved toward profitability.
These numbers demonstrate that Naspers has made considerable progress in improving operational efficiency.
However, strong earnings have not completely removed the valuation concerns surrounding its Tencent exposure.
Tencent AI Spending Raises Fresh Concerns
Tencent remains the most important factor influencing Naspers’ valuation, with Naspers owning roughly 23% of the Chinese technology giant.
Tencent has increased its focus on AI development, but that strategy comes with substantial financial requirements. The company recently raised approximately $4.7 billion through long-dated dollar and yuan bonds, with part of the funding intended to support AI products and services.
That spending has attracted greater investor scrutiny as markets become increasingly concerned about whether enormous AI infrastructure investments will eventually generate adequate returns.
For Naspers shareholders, this creates an indirect risk. Even if Naspers continues improving its own operations, weaker sentiment toward Tencent or concerns over Tencent’s capital allocation could weigh on the value of its largest investment.
Share Transactions Add Another Overhang
Naspers has also continued its share repurchase programme. Between August 3 and August 7, the company purchased 641,547 shares at an average price of approximately R899.41, spending around R577 million.
Separately, changes involving Fabricio Bloisi’s Naspers and Prosus share options added further activity around the company’s share structure.
While these transactions do not necessarily signal fundamental weakness, they come at a time when investors are already questioning the sustainability of Naspers’ recovery.
NPN Recovery Faces a Difficult Test
Naspers has a powerful combination of improving cash generation, stronger earnings and one of the world’s most valuable technology investments.
Yet the stock remains vulnerable to sentiment surrounding Tencent, particularly as the Chinese company commits more capital toward AI development.
The recent technical rebound offers some encouragement, but NPN will need sustained buying interest to overcome the repeated failures of previous rallies.
For investors, the key issue is no longer whether Naspers can generate strong earnings. The bigger question is whether Tencent’s rising investment requirements and broader technology-sector concerns will continue to overshadow those improvements.
Moving Averages Continue to Support the Trend in Long Run
From a technical perspective, Naspers remains positioned within a well-established uptrend. During the retracement, the share price slipped below the 50-week simple moving average (yellow) and then it slipped below the 100 SMA (green). However the decline has stalled and we saw an attempt at climbing higher in March, popping above R1,000 shortly but couldn’t hold the gains and reversed lower.
NPNJ Chart Weekly – Naspers Found Support at the 200 SMA
The larger trend remains bullish, but the sentiment is bearish mid-term, so there might be further pullbacks. The major support zone comes at around R800 where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) also stands which held today and we saw a rebound. So, that is a luring place to go long on Naspers if the share price retreats down there.
NPNJ Chart Monthly – The 50 SMA Is Holding
On the daily chart we have seen may rebounds, but moving averages continue to act as resistance, rejecting the price. The 100 SMA in green was the last one to reject the price on Tuesday.
NPNJ Chart Daily – Returning Below the 100 SMA
Takealot Reaches $1 Billion Revenue
Takealot was another standout performer, generating more than $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time.
The milestone strengthens the importance of South Africa’s leading e-commerce platform within Naspers’ broader ecosystem and provides another source of long-term growth.
Naspers is also integrating AI across its businesses. Its ToqanClaw agentic AI platform is now available to more than five million restaurant partners, supporting automation and operational efficiency.
For now, Naspers has strong earnings momentum, but the renewed decline below R810 shows that investors remain cautious. Until the stock can overcome persistent selling pressure, Tencent-related spending concerns and broader technology-sector valuation risks could continue to limit the recovery.
Financial Highlights (FY26)
- Total Revenue: $10.8 billion across the total portfolio.
- Ecosystem Revenue: $9.7 billion (up 53%).
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.3 billion for the e-commerce portfolio (up 84%).
- Core Headline Earnings: $3.6 billion, a 14% increase.
- Dividend: Increased by 40% to 28 euro cents per N share
Highlights
- 53% growth in Ecosystem2 revenue, to $9.7bn
- 84% increase in Ecosystem aebitda to $1.3bn
- Record free cash flow generation of $1.5bn
- 24% growth in core headline earnings per share
- $46bn returned through buybacks, driving 16pp NAV accretion
- $2bn of non-core asset sales
- ToqanClaw, Prosus agentic platform, available to 5-million-plus partners globally
Takealot Group
The Takealot Group continued to grow its position as South Africa’s leading ecommerce ecosystem, now serving more than 6.2-million active customers who placed over 60-million orders across its platforms in FY26.
- Strong performance as the group hit $1bn in revenue, up 18%, defending its market leadership
- GMV up 14% to $2bn, driving a 60% increase in aebitda to $78m, and full-year aebit profitability for the first time of $11m
- Takealot.com delivered strong topline growth with GMV up 15%, orders up 18% and revenue up 19% to $906m
- Mr D grew GMV 13% and revenue 11% to $138m, delivering a stable aebit of $4m
- Takealot Fulfilment Solutions (TFS), positioned as the group’s newest infrastructure business to monetise logistics for external customers, recorded 93.5% year-on-year revenue growth
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
