Asian markets look set to open with a slight defensive lean as September’s poor seasonals collide with a live Fed, firmer oil and a much stronger yen.
Friday’s payroll report did not settle the September rate debate. It simply handed the decision to inflation, making this week’s CPI the key hinge. A soft print keeps the story manageable. A hotter number would land much harder with WTI above $92/bbl and Brent having pushed through $98/bbl.
Oil is therefore back in the Fed conversation. Near $100/bbl, crude stops being just a commodity story and starts feeding directly into inflation expectations, yields and equity valuations.
The other major shift is in USD/JPY. The break below 155 matters because it looks less like another squeeze and more like a potential change in regime as markets price a firmer BOJ path and possible Japanese repatriation.
The catch is that a lot of good yen news is already in the price.
The signal is simple: September has arrived with the Fed live, oil near triple digits and the yen breaking a major level. The summer jog just turned uphill.
Asia Open: September’s Old Ghost Walks Back Onto the Trading Floor
The market is staring down a Fed hike, a live inflation debate, oil near triple digits, the risk of further Japanese tightening, possible capital repatriation back to Japan, renewed tariff threats against Canada, and an October political calendar that already looks poised to make Mark Twain’s
