Jefferies on Defence
Believe India defence spend should see a double-digit CAGR in the medium-term in the background of global geopolitical tensions.
Private sector companies particularly have visible growth prospects north of 20% backed by government focus on domestic manufacturing and building the private sector supply chain
Initiate Buy on Solar Industries – TP Rs 28160 & Astra Microwave – TP Rs 2055
Initiate hold on Bharat Dynamics – TP Rs 1280
Kotak Securities on Defence Sector
Defense: Large AoN approved; BEL and HAL key beneficiaries
Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) accorded Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for procurement proposals worth Rs 1.1 Lakh Cr
Nearly 98% of the value is earmarked for domestic industry
This is one of the largest single-sitting indigenous clearances on record
Goldman Sachs on India Aerospace and Defense
DAC approves defence procurement proposals worth ₹1.1tn
Proposals mainly focused on Indian Army requirements
Advanced Light Helicopter order could be worth ₹250–300bn
BEL, HAL and BEML seen as key beneficiaries
98% of procurement expected to be sourced domestically
Focus on surveillance, counter-measures and deterrence platforms
Private sector defence participation seen improving further
MOSL on Defence
India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved Acceptance of Necessity (AoNs) for various acquisition proposals worth INR1.1t for Army, Navy, and Air Force
Approvals focus on battlefield mobility, mine warfare, CBRN protection, electronic warfare, surveillance and naval propulsion, with 98% of total AoNs earmarked for the Indian industry
So far in FY27, DAC has given approvals worth INR1.62t. Over FY25-YTDFY27, approvals worth INR13t have been accorded for Indian defense sector, which enhances TAM of domestic players. Moreover, the government has been taking steps to open missile production to Indian private players
These initiatives improve order inflow visibility for the defense sector. In the near to medium term, finalization of large tenders for defense PSUs should be keenly watched out for
Maintain Bharat Electronics (BEL) as preferred pick
DAM Cap on Defence Sector
Project wise list of potential beneficiaries
· CBRN Recce Vehicles: Vehicles for detection, identification and marking of CBRN-contaminated areas. Beneficiary: BEL
· High Mobility Vehicles (HMV):All-terrain vehicles for troop/logistics movement and carriage of radars, missiles and specialised equipment. Beneficiary: BEML
· Mechanical Mine Layer (MML):Automated system for rapid laying and burying of anti-tank mines. Beneficiary: Godrej Precision Engineering
· Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH): Indigenous 5.5-tonne multi-role helicopter for transport, logistics, surveillance and armed missions. Beneficiary: HAL
· Trawl Tanks: Tank-mounted mine-breaching system to clear minefields and create safe lanes for armoured formations. Beneficiary: BEML.
· SARVATRA Bridge System: Mobile multi-span bridge system for crossing rivers, canals and other obstacles; designed for heavy military formations. Beneficiary: BEML + L&T
· Arudhra Radar: Indigenous 4D phased-array radar for aerial surveillance, detection and tracking. Beneficiary: BEL.
· Marine Gas Turbine (MGT):Indigenous marine gas-turbine propulsion/power system for naval vessels, aimed at reducing import dependence. Beneficiary: Bharat Forge
· Ground-Based Multi-Purpose Jammer (GBMPJ):Ground-based electronic-warfare system designed to jam adversary radars/electromagnetic systems. Beneficiary: BEL, Astra Microwave, Data Patterns etc.
· DEFSAC System: RFID-based secure smart-card and access-control system replacing paper-based defence IDs, passes and permits. Beneficiary: BEL – Potential
· Aircraft, Transport Fleet & Helicopter Upgrades: Various proposals to enhance the war-fighting capability of fighter aircraft, transport aircraft and helicopters through upgrades and capability enhancement. Beneficiary: HAL, BEL etc.
CLSA on HAL
O-P, TP Rs 5481
DAC approved procurement of purchase of 138 Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) from HAL.
This order should add 13% to HAL’s US$27bn backlog, apart from adding US$600m in cash from advances.
Its decadal pipeline remains healthy at US$48bn
See start of Mk 1A deliveries (2H) and visibility on GE engine production deal as key catalysts.
HAL is cheapest pure-play defence stock despite its sector-leading position while it is trading at what view as a deserved premium to global aerospace peers given its Make-in-India pipeline & market access.
CLSA on Sansera
Initiate O-P, TP Rs 4954
Sansera is a manufacturer of complex, high-quality precision-forged and machined components
With c.84% of its revenue derived from auto segment (ICE+EV), & rest 16% coming from non-auto segments, primarily aerospace, defence, and semiconductor (ADS), believe ADS segment will be its primary growth engine, supported by a strong order book and India’s increasing emergence as a viable aerospace manufacturing hub for OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers
In addition, ADS business is margin accretive and generates superior asset turns, which should improve Sansera’s overall capital efficiency
Thus, expect EPS to more than double over next three years, underpinning view that Sansera is a compelling 2x in three years story.
Nomura on GE Vernova
Buy, TP raised to Rs 6000
Landmark HVDC order win enhances long-term growth outlook
HVDC order win with an estimated value of INR130bn a major positive catalyst
Estimate FY26-29F PAT CAGR of 31%
Raise FY28F/29F revenue by 4%/9% as HVDC order win comes in as a positive surprise
Stock is currently trading at 39x FY29F EPS of Rs111
CITI on GE Vernova
CO has won the Power Grid order for an 800kV HVDC LCC station (2×3,000 MW) on Barmer II–South Kalamb corridor
Expect revenue recognition from FY29, driving 25% upside to prior FY29 EBITDA and EPS estimates
Had expected Hitachi Energy India to win, given its higher local content share in LCC-based HVDC & execution bandwidth; close +ve catalyst watch
GE Vernova – Buy – TP Rs 5400
Hitachi – Buy, TP cut to Rs 42000
CLSA on Adani Ports
O-p, TP Rs 2070
NDR takeaways
Its ports grew traffic 2x country rate over FY21-26 & it gained 300bps market share YoY.
Its FY31 plan for 1bt traffic implies a Cagr of 15% & five-year revenue and port Ebitda Cagrs of 17% and 18% by FY31.
Extension into logistics & its M&As have paid off, with logistics, marine & international ports Ebitda up 34%, 125% and 180% in FY26 YoY, adding new growth catalysts
CEO highlighted its international expansion will be well within guard rails of financial prudence & are likely support its high ROCE while driving growth & dollarize its asset base
Credit ratios have also improved with nine-year low net debt/Ebitda.
HSBC on Chola Invest
Buy, TP Rs 2140
Management reiterated its strong growth outlook for FY27 with several vehicle segments, CSEL likely to drive AUM growth
CIFC was optimistic about delivering better than expected net credit losses, & maintaining a PBT ROTA of 3.5% in FY27
Overall, for FY27e, CIFC appeared optimistic about AUM growth, lower credit costs and stable ROTA
Kotak Securities on Home First
Recommendation: Buy, Target: ₹1530
Recent interaction reinforces positive outlook on the affordable housing finance segment and Home First in particular
Expect growth to remain strong and continue smoothly with potential upsides to estimates
Margins remain healthy
Do not see any red flags in asset quality trends across most borrower cohorts
Jefferies on Polycab
Recommendation: Buy, Target: ₹11100
Is Recent Correction a Buying Opportunity?
Amid Ultravolt launch, Polycab is down 10% in 5-day, now at 35x 1-year forward PE
At Rs 1800 cr capex and 4-5x asset turn, UltraTech’s sales can form 5-6% of FY30 C&W industry
Informal market at 25% implies headroom for new entrant
Polycab is 70-75% Cables mix; UltraTech’s focus seems more on Wires
C&W industry’s net profit margin at 5-7% offers limited leeway for price discounts
Buy the fall
HSBC on Voda Idea
Reduce, TP Rs 8.25 from Rs7.70
Operating cash flows to fall short of spectrum payment obligations in FY29e, despite assuming tariff hike in 1QCY27
Network investment plan to stabilise market share, but unlikely to drive market share gains
Vi needs to increase its operating cash flow (3x in three years) in order to meet its spectrum payment obligations.
Whereas, forecast co’s EBITDA to grow by c15% CAGR over FY26- 29e, primarily driven by a mobile tariff hike in 1QCY27e
Further, Vi also needs additional capital for spectrum renewals starting from 2030
Think Vi’s inability to fund its spectrum payment obligations via operating cash flows will remain an overhang on stock
GS on Shyam Metalics
Buy, TP Rs 1120
Posted a strong operating performance in Aug-26, despite limited support from prices.
Key points: 1) Both Sales volume and Realization rose YoY across the product categories;
2) Realization for longs rose while that of flat products fell MoM;
3) Implied revenue for Aug-26 rose 37.7% YoY to INR 20.2bn, per GSe.
SMEL has continued to show positive traction on revenue mainly on back of continuous capacity ramp up.
In Aug-26, have also witnessed price hikes across long products, which is likely to be beneficial
GS on ICICI BK
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 2000
ICICI bank mobilized USD17.9bn of FNCR deposits, accounting for 14% of total FCNR deposits mobilized by the banking system, compared to its overall deposit market share of 6.7%.
More importantly, believe ICICI’s 50% share of un-levered deposits is likely relatively higher than peer banks
Estimate that this could improve ICICI’s LCR by 40% ppts excluding overseas b/s impact (all else equal), further strengthening its relatively favourable starting liquidity position.
Raise EPS estimates by 0.4%-3% over next three year
Nomura on Life Insurance
In Aug 2026, private India life insurers’ individual annualized premium equivalent (APE) was up 15% y-y (on a soft base of 1%), supported by volume
growth of 8% y-y (on a base of -2%)
On a total APE basis, private players witnessed growth of 12% y-y (on a base of 11%) in Aug-26
For covered life insurers, total APE growth in Aug 2026 was fastest for ICICI Life at 23% y-y (on a negative base of 9%) followed by HDFC Life at 18% y-y & SBI Life at 16% y-y.
Axis Max Life (unlisted; in which Max F owns an 80.98% stake) had a relatively soft month at 9% y-y
Distribution reforms still remain a key trigger for sector
Jefferies on Groww
Buy TP Rs 240
India’s margin trading facility (MTF) has grown 2x in last 2 years
Nonetheless, it is 1.1x of cash ADTO, smaller than developed markets
See India’s MTF book growing at 24% CAGR till FY30e, 1.3x Cash ADTO.
Groww’s 3% MTF share is expected to become 5% by FY29e, leading to 14% rev contribution vs 5% in FY26.
Brokers are managing risk by limiting leverage in less traded stocks, hence Nifty 500 share in MTF has risen ~300bps over last year.
HDFC Securities on BSE
Maintains ADD; target price: ₹3,850
CAS-led volume disruption largely behind, recovery underway
Premium ADTV fell 24% QoQ in Q2FY27 on CAS impact
BSE held market share despite disruption; notional share up 8bp QoQ
Premium market share rose 108bp QoQ to 32.6%
Weekly recovery visible; premium ADTV up 18% WoW
Cash segment volumes unaffected; disruption is derivatives-specific
Regulator expected to issue consultation paper on settlement framework
Estimates cut 2–4% on weaker Q2FY27 volumes
Goldman Sachs on Global Oil
Raises Brent/WTI forecast by $5 to $85/$80 for Dec 2026
Sees $80/$75 for 2027 as Middle East disruptions persist
OECD commercial stocks have barely drawn since the war began
Assumes gradual Middle East supply recovery by H2 2027
Global landed oil stocks down to 8.6bn barrels from 9.1bn
Price risks tilted to the upside, especially near term
Brent could exceed $120 if Gulf output stays 4mb/d below pre-war levels
Brent could fall into the $60s if output rises 1mb/d above pre-war levels
Recommends hedging geopolitical risk via Mar27–Dec27 diesel timespreads
CLSA on Oil & Gas
Spike in global refining spreads of diesel and ATF to stratospheric levels is neatest sign of extreme demand-supply tightness in oil market
This has been fuelled by war-related unplanned closures in Russia as well as the Middle East along with sharp cuts in Chinese exports
Supply model shows very small new capacity additions in 2026 while maintenance shutdowns in US may impact flows at a time when inventory of key refined products is at multi-year lows
While some cool-off in spreads from sky-high levels cannot be ruled out as China and other exporters raise exports, expect global refining spreads to stay strong for multiple quarters. Reliance’s export refinery could see gains from this tightness.
