Yuanta 證’s “Bitcoin Price Is Attractive Bottom”
Interest alone in U.S. Treasury Deficit Approaches $1.25 Trillion Annually
![While the global broad currency (M2) has increased 4.6 times since the end of 2003, the hard money basket consisting of gold and bitcoin has soared 16.2 times. [Source = Yuanta Securities]](https://dollarmatters.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/news-p.v1.20260914.9e4090b83bf24cfe841afee6c27455a1_P1.png)
A snowballing U.S. national debt and currency depreciation are expected to lead Bitcoin’s next upward cycle, according to a report.
Yuanta Securities analyzed on the 14th that as the U.S. fiscal deficit faces limitations due to interest burdens, the movement of funds to “hard money” such as Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, which have limited supply, is becoming clear, while stablecoins and real-linked assets (RWA) are emerging as new demand sources for short-term U.S. government bonds.
According to Yuanta Securities, the U.S. fiscal deficit in the second quarter of this year reached $1.78 trillion, of which $1.25 trillion is a net interest expense that cannot be reduced by spending cuts.
Lee Hwan-wook, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, said, “In the end, currency issuance remains the only option at a time when austerity, default and wealth redistribution are all politically constrained,” adding, “The cost of this will be borne by bondholders.”
In fact, China’s holdings of U.S. government bonds halved from $1.32 trillion in November 2013 to $6333.4 billion in June, while central banks in emerging economies have increased their gold reserves by 20.3% since the end of 2019.
◆ Funds headed for ‘hard money’, Bitcoin bottom of cycle
![According to the analysis of Yuanta Securities, Bitcoin's current price (about $78,000) is far below the expected bottom line of 2030 (based on the base case) of $104,534. [Source = Yuanta Securities]](https://dollarmatters.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/news-p.v1.20260914.78c9a4b0aa6645c2b2f96b66080bedb0_P1.png)
According to Yuanta Securities, the hard money basket combined with gold and bitcoin has increased 16.2 times over the past 23 years while global M2 (luminous liquidity) has expanded 4.6 times.
The proportion of hard money to the amount of money has risen from the median value of 20.9% in 65 years since 1962 to 29% now, and it has been gradually raised every time the crisis response has been repeated since the 2009 financial crisis.
The researcher presented Bitcoin’s expected highs in 2029 at $108,580 in a weak scenario, $165,106 in a basic scenario, and $219,426 in a strong scenario through an equilibrium “P=(M×H×B)/S” consisting of four variables: money volume (M), hard money share (H), bitcoin share in a basket (B) and supply (S). The expected lows for 2030 were $66,929 and $104,4534 and $142,071, respectively.
Analysts say that the recent bitcoin price of $78,600 is 25% lower than the low point in the basic scenario, and has already entered the bottom of the next cycle floor section.
However, if the proportion of Bitcoin at the bottom of this cycle falls below the previous floor of 2.46%, the premise itself will collapse, and in this case, Bitcoin could fall to about $42,600.
