The dollar-yen pair saw position-adjustment buying gain a slight upper hand in Tokyo foreign exchange trading on the morning of the 14th, with the pair climbing from early morning levels to trade around 154 yen per dollar. At noon, the indicative quote stood at 154.03–03 yen, down 17 sen from the previous Friday’s 5 p.m. level of 154.20–23 yen, marking a slightly weaker dollar/stronger yen. From the early Monday morning level of around 153.70 yen, the dollar was bought back.
In overseas markets late last week, the pair faced selling pressure in European trading hours as a pullback from Tokyo-session buying, falling to the 153.20 yen range in early U.S. trading. Immediately after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the dollar was briefly bought as the core index came in slightly firmer than expected, but the pair was subsequently pushed lower by selling and ended the session trading in the mid-153.50 yen range.
In the Tokyo market, the pair briefly climbed to the 153.70 yen range in early morning trading, but gains stalled toward 9 a.m. as selling on rebounds weighed. After 9 a.m., buying believed to be from real-demand players strengthened, lifting the pair to the 153.80 yen range around the fixing. Toward noon, the pair extended gains to around the 154 yen level. At 10 a.m., dollar-yen stood at 153.64 yen, only about 3 sen firmer than the New York close of 153.61 yen.
Among market participants, wariness over yen appreciation remained persistent, and the pair was at one point sold down to 153.38 yen. However, dollar-buying/yen-selling tied to rising crude oil prices was also observed, leaving the pair directionless around the previous Friday’s New York close. A source at a major Japanese bank commented, “No particular catalysts have emerged; position-adjustment buying appears to have taken the lead.”
That said, selling pressure on rebounds is also a concern around the 154 yen level. An economist at an asset management firm noted that “selling on rebounds is likely to emerge around the 154 yen level,” with some suggesting that dollar-yen could struggle to extend gains in the afternoon.
EUR/JPY rose after 9 a.m. At noon, the pair stood at 178.38–39 yen per euro, down roughly 60 sen from the previous Friday’s 5 p.m. level of 178.98–98 yen, reflecting a weaker euro/stronger yen. At 10 a.m., the pair was at 178.04 yen, about 7 sen below the New York close of 178.11 yen. Even as the Nikkei 225 extended sharp declines, the yen’s reaction was muted, with EUR/JPY confined to narrow fluctuations around the 178 yen level in tandem with dollar-yen.
The euro’s performance against the dollar was top-heavy. At noon, the pair stood at 1.1581–1581 dollars per euro, down about 0.0024 dollars from the previous Friday’s 5 p.m. level of 1.1605–1605 dollars, marking a slightly weaker euro/stronger dollar. At 10 a.m., the pair was at 1.1587 dollars, below the New York close of 1.1599 dollars, with selling leading the pair down to 1.1585 dollars as the dollar’s downside remained firm amid the surge in crude oil prices at the start of the week.
Today’s reference ranges are: dollar-yen at 153.38–153.79 yen, EUR/USD at 1.1585–1.1612 dollars, and EUR/JPY at 177.85–178.25 yen. Market attention is expected to remain focused on U.S. monetary policy developments and the trajectory of crude oil prices.
