Thank you to the Society for the honor of addressing your annual meeting.1 In doing a little research on the SPE’s history, I noted that one goal cited by the business economists who founded this group was creating a forum to discuss the divergence between real-world challenges and economic theory. That task is pressing when business profits, losses, and the jobs of employees are on the line, and the stakes are also high for economic policymakers, who face those very challenges today. Economies are confoundingly difficult to understand because, in a sense, they are the largest and most complex things ever created by humans. Economists try to make sense of this complicated world and explain in logical and clear terms how to understand it. We develop rigorous theories that yield testable hypotheses, and we test those hypotheses to see if they are supported or rejected by the data. Being both an economist and economic policymaker, my objective today is to follow in that tradition and use economic theory and various types of data to describe my outlook for the U.S. economy and my views on the appropriate course of monetary policy. It may seem odd to come all the way to London to speak about the U.S. economy, but I hope it will be of interest—and I did warn the organizers about what I would talk about. Monetary policymakers like to use forward guidance to avoid surprises. Formulating my outlook has been complicated recently by the 43-day government shutdown, including the agencies that produce key economic data. As I will argue, I believe the challenge presented by this missing data has been overstated in many quarters. Policymakers and forecasters are not “flying blind” or “in a fog.” While it is always nice to have more data, as economists, we are skilled at using whatever available data there is to formulate forecasts. Despite the government shutdown, we have a wealth of private and some public-sector data that provide an imperfect but perfectly actionable picture of the U.S. economy. So, what is that data telling us? First, that the labor market is still weak and near stall speed. Second, that inflation through September continued to show relatively small effects from tariffs and support the hypothesis that tariffs are having a one-off effect raising price levels in the U.S. and are not a persistent source of inflation. Accounting for estimated tariff effects, underlying inflation is relatively close to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2 percent target. Third, despite realized inflation running close to 3 percent and above target for five years, medium- and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. And, lastly, even excluding the temporary effects of the shutdown, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) has likely slowed in the second half of 2025 from its fast pace in the second quarter. FED’S WALLER: IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY DATA, INCLUDING THE UPCOMING JOBS REPORT, WOULD CHANGE THE VIEW THAT ANOTHER RATE CUT IS IN ORDER. … FED’S WALLER: HOUSING AND CAR AFFORDABILITY REMAIN MAJOR CHALLENGES, WEIGHING ON SPENDING; SAYS ABUNDANT DATA STILL PROVIDES AN ‘ACTIONABLE PICTURE’ OF THE ECONOMY DESPITE OFFICIAL DATA LAGS FED’S WALLER MAKES CASE FOR CONTINUING INTEREST RATE CUTS – SAYS HE SUPPORTS A QUARTER-PERCENTAGE-POINT RATE CUT AT FED’S DECEMBER 9-10 MEETING – DECEMBER RATE CUT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INSURANCE ON LABOR MARKET – SAYS HE WORRIES RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY IS WEIGHING ON ECO…
