NEW YORK :The safe-haven Japanese yen rose on Monday, but was slightly softer against the dollar as uncertainty around U.S. tariffs kept traders mostly on the sidelines waiting for clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
The yen has been gaining ground and gold pushed to a fresh peak as investors shunned risk assets ahead of looming tariffs that have clouded the outlook for U.S. inflation and economic growth.
“The only people trading today are those that have to, because it’s quarter-end (and) they have to rebalance. Everyone else is waiting for April 2 and then April 4 non-farm payrolls,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.
Markets are nervous ahead of a new round of reciprocal levies that the White House is due to announce on Wednesday. Details are scarce, but Trump said late on Sunday that essentially all countries will be slapped with duties this week.
The yen strengthened to 148.7 per U.S. dollar at one point on Monday, but last traded at 149.815. The Japanese currency rallied 0.82 per cent on Friday, when U.S. data showed core inflation rose more than expected last month, fuelling fears of stagflation.
Gold pushed to an unprecedented $3,128.06 per ounce, marking three consecutive sessions in which it has registered record highs.
Along with tariffs, investors are in for a busy week with a string of economic reports, including jobs and payrolls data, that could shed much-needed light on how the U.S. economy is holding up under a second Trump presidency.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials’ speeches this week also could offer clues on the path for U.S. interest rates.
“While equities are unequivocally focused on the growth impact from whatever is announced, FX markets seem to be holding their collective breath until some degree of clarity emerges,” said John Velis, head of Americas macro strategy at BNY Markets.
The euro was down 0.35 per cent at $1.0796, though it is set for a roughly 4.5 per cent rise this quarter, its biggest jump since the third quarter of 2022, thanks to Germany’s fiscal overhaul.
The likely implementation of U.S. tariffs means Europe will have to take better control of its future, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, reiterating the impact of tariffs and tit-for-tat measures on the bloc’s growth.
Trump on Friday said he was open to carving out deals with countries seeking to avoid tariffs, but the Washington Post reported over the weekend he was urging his advisers to take a more aggressive stance.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, treaded water at 104.26.
As tariffs roil the global economy, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35 per cent from 20 per cent. It also projected three interest rate cuts each from the Fed and ECB from, up from its previous expectation of two each.
Elsewhere, the pound rose 0.12 per cent to $1.2915 and is set for a nearly 3 per cent monthly climb – its best showing since November 2023.
Britain still expects to be hit by global tariffs this week, although a British government spokesperson said Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump had “productive negotiations” towards a trade deal in a phone call on Sunday.
The Canadian dollar eased to C$1.4379. Mexico’s peso slipped to 20.4258 per dollar.
The Australian dollar fell 1.03 per cent to $0.6224 on Monday, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting on Tuesday.
Currency
bid
prices
at 31
March
02:21
p.m. GMT
Descript RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD High Low
ion Close Chang Pct Bid Bid
Previous e
Session
Dollar 104.22 104.01 0.21 per cent -3.94 per cent 104.27 103
index .74
Euro/Dol 1.0804 1.0834 -0.29 4.35 per cent $1.085 $1.
lar per cent 079
6
Dollar/Y 149.76 149.87 -0.08 -4.83 per cent 149.75 148
en per cent .75
Euro/Yen 161.79 162.24 -0.28 -0.88 per cent 162.04 161
per cent .05
Dollar/S 0.8837 0.8802 0.4 per cent -2.62 per cent 0.8837 0.8
wiss 775
Sterling 1.292 1.293 -0.09 3.29 per cent $1.297 $1.
/Dollar per cent 1 291
9
Dollar/C 1.4372 1.4319 0.4 per cent -0.03 per cent 1.4389 1.4
anadian 3
Aussie/D 0.6226 0.629 -0.99 0.64 per cent $0.63 $0.
ollar per cent 622
5
Euro/Swi 0.9546 0.9535 0.12 per cent 1.63 per cent 0.9548 0.9
ss 521
Euro/Ste 0.8361 0.8365 -0.05 1.06 per cent 0.8371 0.8
rling per cent 35
NZ 0.5657 0.5718 -1.04 1.13 per cent $0.572 0.5
Dollar/D per cent 4 658
ollar
Dollar/N 10.5383 10.4247 1.09 per cent -7.28 per cent 10.57 10.
orway 441
1
Euro/Nor 11.3878 11.3306 0.5 per cent -3.24 per cent 11.428 11.
way 328
Dollar/S 10.053 10.005 0.48 per cent -8.75 per cent 10.059 9.9
weden 794
Euro/Swe 10.8614 10.8335 0.26 per cent -5.28 per cent 10.868 10.
den 3 812
4
(Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru; Editing by Stephen Coates, Sam Holmes, Frances Kerry, Andrew Heavens and Paul Simao)
