In 2017, the Swiss watch industry had just five brands that sold more than $1 billion at retail every year: Rolex, Omega, Cartier, Patek Philippe and Longines.
Today, that exclusive club has grown to eight with the addition of Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille and Vacheron Constantin, out of a watch universe estimated to include 400 Swiss brands.
What does that elite grouping say about changes since the pivotal year of 2017, when growing demand for luxury mechanical watches triggered the rise of the secondary market and a boom in independent watchmaking?
In short: The Swiss watch trade is becoming more concentrated, with the big brands getting bigger and their products getting pricier — and it all is happening against the backdrop of the industry’s continuing slowdown. “We see very few brands capable of scaling their businesses over time and keeping that positive dynamic,” said Oliver R. Müller, the founder of LuxeConsult, a watch consultancy near Lausanne, Switzerland.
Charles Tian, the founder of WatchCharts, a company in Austin, Texas, that specializes in data about the secondary watch market, said he was not surprised to learn the number of billion-dollar brands had grown.
“A lot of brands are raising retail prices to keep up with inflation and rising costs,” Mr. Tian said on a recent video call. “A billion dollars of sales in 2017 is very different from a billion dollars of sales in 2025 or 2024. There’s been nearly 30 percent inflation since then based on Consumer Price Index reports” from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Higher operating costs aren’t the only thing troubling Swiss watchmakers. Following three years of steady growth, sales for all but a handful of brands are down, reflecting an industrywide trend. In 2024, Swiss watch exports fell by 2.8 percent — to 26 billion Swiss francs, about $29.5 billion — compared with 2023 totals, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. (As many brands in the secrecy-mad industry do not report revenues, exports are generally considered the most accurate measurement of output.)
And yet the industry’s billion-dollar brands have continued to maintain their edge, said Mr. Müller, a co-author of the eighth annual watch report from Morgan Stanley, released in February. He noted that the so-called Big Four brands — Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille, a quartet of independently owned watchmakers whose timepieces are considered by many insiders to be liquid assets because of how well they maintain their value in the pre-owned sector — gained market share in 2024 and now account for “a staggering 47 percent of the Swiss watch market,” he said in an email interview.
He also cited the industry’s steep decline in production as another major factor affecting the high-end watch trade. In 2024, Swiss watch exports fell to a notable low of 15.3 million watches, down 9.4 percent from the prior year, according to the federation.
“We have lost half of the volume since 2011, and I don’t expect the industry to ever recuperate those lost volumes,” said Mr. Müller. “Hence, the brands aiming for scaling their sales are left with a premiumization strategy, which will allow them to grow in value, increase their margins and have a very moderate or even no-volume growth over time.”
As a result of these trends, analysts forecast that, over the long term, the industry will comprise a shrinking pool of watchmakers — perhaps as few as “15 brands with long-term vision and growth, and many others in deep trouble if the current negative trend in volume continues,” Mr. Müller said.
The segments that follow, based on interviews with industry analysts, retailers and resale dealers, examine Switzerland’s billion-dollar watchmakers in descending revenue order, looking at how they have found success, and what it all means for the future of the luxury watch business.
The sales figures, all taken from the Morgan Stanley report, are estimates because the Big Four don’t release financial details, and the others belong to groups — Omega and Longines to the Swatch Group and Cartier and Vacheron Constantin to Compagnie Financière Richemont — that don’t disclose the financial performances of individual brands. (The report’s methodology note said estimates were based on figures reported by public companies, public statements from brand chief executives, federation data and discussions with brands and industry contacts.)
Rolex
Rolex sells almost a third of all Swiss watches, making it the trade’s undisputed juggernaut. Owned by the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation, a private family trust named for the brand’s co-founder, the Geneva business had estimated sales of 10.6 billion Swiss francs in 2024, capturing 32.1 percent of the market, up from 26 percent in 2019.
The brand’s dominant position on the primary market is inextricably tied to its performance in secondary channels, where, by all accounts, its timepieces continue to maintain their value — one reason dealers and industry analysts often liken Rolexes to currency.
Since introducing its own certified pre-owned program (C.P.O.) in December 2022, Rolex has proved that there is power in having a brand-authorized pre-owned business, Mr. Tian of WatchCharts said.
“The certified pre-owned market could be, in the long term, bigger or more prestigious than the noncertified market,” he noted, “and Rolex already has a massive lead.”
Last year Rolex also benefited from its 2023 acquisition of the Swiss retail chain Bucherer, which, according to Morgan Stanley, accounted for 8 percent of the brand’s sales.
As Edouard Caumon, the country manager for the United States at the online pre-owned dealer Watchfinder & Co., pointed out, Rolex enjoys a sterling reputation for good reason.
“It’s very easy to sell a Rolex,” Mr. Caumon said on a video call from his New York office earlier this month. “You just have to put it on display.”
The French luxury brand, which maintains a network of watchmaking facilities in Switzerland, has maintained its position as the second highest-selling Swiss watchmaker since 2020. With estimated sales of 3.2 billion Swiss francs, up 1 percent year-over-year, Cartier continues to benefit from what Jean-Philippe Bertschy of Bank Vontobel called “the fantastic work” of its former chief executive, Cyrille Vigneron, who stepped down in August 2024, making way for Louis Ferla as the new chief executive of the Richemont-owned house.
Mr. Bertschy, the bank’s managing director and head of Swiss equity research in Zurich, highlighted Mr. Vigneron’s decision nine years ago to refocus Cartier on its most recognizable watch collections, instead of flashy, high-end complications. Thus, Mr. Bertschy said, Cartier was building what he called a “strong connection” to the younger generation (see Timothée Chalamet’s 1994 Cartier Baignoire at the Oscars earlier this month).
“They want to have a product that’s easily recognizable,” Mr. Bertschy said by phone recently.
Many analysts noted that Cartier is the only high-end watchmaker that offers accessibly priced watches, such as numerous versions of its iconic Tank design at less than $3,500, without sacrificing its prestige. “They’re making sure that younger consumers understand and start to love the brand at an early age,” Fred Levin, the managing director of Luxury Watch Barometer, which tracks retail data in the United States, said on a video call earlier this month.
Omega
With estimated sales of 2.4 billion Swiss francs, Omega is the Swiss industry’s third-biggest seller and the prized holding in the Swatch Group’s 16-brand portfolio, which ranges from high-end brands such as Breguet to inexpensive ones such as FlikFlak.
That status is due in no small part to its two key sponsorships: Omega has been the Olympics’ official timekeeper since 1932 and James Bond’s watch of choice since 1995. While the brand’s sales declined about 8 percent last year, it still outperformed the rest of the group, which saw a 14.6 percent decrease overall.
“Their average price point has increased a lot, but the quality of the product has leveled up as well,” said Scott Meller, the president of Feldmar Watch Company, an Omega retailer in Los Angeles. “Their Seamaster and Speedmaster are the two collections that drive a large percentage of the business.”
The brand’s strength lies in its mastery of chronometry, or accurate time measurement, Mr. Müller of LuxeConsult said. He also highlighted the brand’s profitability, which he said has grown as a result of more direct sales through its own boutiques.
“If you took away Omega from the Swatch Group, I think you could turn off the light,” he said, adding that in 2024, the brand represented 75 percent of the group’s operating profits. “That’s important because it allows the other brands in the group that are not performing as well to survive.”
Audemars Piguet
A.P., as the brand is known, celebrated its 150th anniversary in February at its headquarters in Le Brassus, Switzerland, by unveiling several new designs. Its chief executive, Ilaria Resta, described them as linked to two important avenues for growth: “I see an acceleration of complications. And I see growth with women, but it has nothing to do with me being a woman. Women are more fascinated by mechanical watches. They become the first buyer, not the recipient of a gift, as it used to be.”
By focusing on complications and women’s watches, which often come studded with precious stones, the brand’s average price has increased. But that is not the only reason Audemars, whose sales reached an estimated 2.4 billion Swiss francs in 2024, has been part of the billionaires club since 2018.
The watchmaker’s signature model, the Royal Oak, continues to be in great demand: At the peak of the market in 2022, the recently discontinued Royal Oak Ref. 15202 “Jumbo” was selling for $180,000 on the secondary market although it cost $28,900 at retail, Mr. Caumon of Watchfinder & Co. said. And the brand has nearly eliminated wholesale distribution in favor of a lounge retail concept that allows it to sell directly to clients.
“The price increase is important, but consolidation of distribution is a bigger number,” said William Rohr, the founder of the independent brand Massena LAB who is known in the watch world as William Massena.
Patek Philippe
While Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe are rivals in the prestige watchmaking category, the latter has long enjoyed a reputation as the industry’s most coveted brand, with the impressive auction results to prove it.
In 2024, the watchmaker had estimated sales of 2.3 billion Swiss francs, up from 2.05 billion Swiss francs in 2023. It owes at least some of that growth to price increases. Take, for example, the stainless steel model in Patek’s new Cubitus collection, introduced in October. Its retail price is $41,240, as compared with the $33,710 price of a similar predecessor, the steel Ref. 5711 Nautilus with a blue dial, which the brand discontinued in 2020.
“Patek is like Hermès for watches,” Mr. Massena said. “Regardless of what price it is, people will buy it, like they will buy a Birkin bag.”
Richard Mille
With estimated sales of 1.6 billion Swiss francs last year, the French watchmaker stands apart in the billionaires club thanks to its high average retail price: 271,930 Swiss francs, or $308,108 (compare that with $55,124 for A.P., which has the second highest average retail price among the eight billion-dollar brands).
Known for its distinctive tonneau, or barrel, shape timepieces; use of experimental materials; and flashy cast of ambassadors such as Pharrell Williams, Rafael Nadal and Michelle Yeoh, the brand is equally strong on the secondary market, where its annual sales are around $1 billion, Mr. Tian of WatchCharts said.
To many watch insiders, Richard Mille’s success has defied expectations. “To be able to scale above $1 billion — no one thought 20 years ago when they started that it would be possible,” Mr. Müller said.
In 2017, Longines was riding a wave of demand from consumers in China, where its midrange timepieces — on average, priced at about $2,000 — generated strong sales. Fast forward eight years and the Chinese economy has stagnated, with housing prices, stock markets and, yes, Swiss watch sales in free fall. (In 2024, Swiss watch exports to China declined 25.8 percent year on year, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry’s 2024 report.)
“The losers have been brands with too much exposure to China,” Mr. Bertschy of Bank Vontobel said, explaining why Longines, with estimated 2024 sales of 1.1 billion Swiss francs, was in an especially precarious position.
The brand’s fortunes have changed so drastically that Mr. Massena went so far as to question the Morgan Stanley estimates. “Longines is not a billion-dollar brand,” he said. “Ten years ago, they were, but now, no way.”
Vacheron Constantin
In January, the prestige brand — which, together with Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe, forms what the Swiss watch trade call the “holy trinity,” a grouping that largely refers to watchmaking excellence — introduced the first highlight of its 270th anniversary celebration this year: the Historiques 222 in stainless steel.
The $32,000 watch helps explain both how the brand achieved an estimated 942 million Swiss francs ($1.07 billion) in sales last year, and why the figure declined from a 2023 high of 1.1 billion Swiss francs.
The Historiques model is an ode to Vacheron’s original 222 model, which came out in 1977 on the brand’s 222nd anniversary and eventually spawned its Overseas sport watch collection, meant to compete with A.P.’s Royal Oak and Patek’s Nautilus.
During the pandemic, as demand soared for those key steel sport models, Vacheron was an indirect beneficiary.
“Then the momentum on those trophy watches totally crashed and Vacheron lost momentum,” Mr. Müller said. “But for me that’s not a concern. It’s a strong brand and will manage to grow again when the market is on a more stable basis.”
