Key Economic Data Fuels BoJ Rate Hike Speculation
Economic data from Japan, including wage growth and household spending, have intensified market expectations for a BoJ policy move. Traders should now turn their attention to upcoming data releases, including machine tool orders and producer prices, which may offer more clues on Japan’s economic outlook.
On February 12, machine tool orders will provide insights into Japan’s industrial demand environment. Economists forecast orders to rise 1.6% year-on-year in January, down from 11.2% in December.
A smaller-than-expected increase may signal a pullback in business investment and industrial production. Downward trends could indicate weaker employment across the manufacturing sector, potentially affecting wage growth. Softer wage growth could curb consumer spending and dampen demand-driven inflationary pressures.
Conversely, larger-than-expected demand for tools could suggest robust production, supporting the labor market and wage growth, a key metric for the BoJ.
Japan Producer Prices and the BoJ Rate Path
While economists consider machine tool orders a barometer of Japan’s manufacturing sector, producer prices will likely impact the USD/JPY pair more. Producer prices are a leading indicator of inflation since producers adjust prices according to demand.
Economists expect producer prices to rise 4% year-on-year in January, up from 3.8% in December.
