Macro update
US-China trade tensions resurface:
Markets came under renewed pressure after President Trump announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports starting in November. Beijing defended its rare earth export restrictions, while analysts expect trade negotiations could prolong the current tariff truce.
Shutdown stalls data flow:
The ongoing US government shutdown continues to delay key economic releases, though producer price index (PPI), retail sales, jobless claims, and housing data are still due. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and several officials are scheduled to speak this week, alongside the release of the Beige Book.
Earnings season kicks off:
Major US banks – including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup rise nearly 9% year-on-year (YoY).
Global political developments:
France’s new prime minister faces an early budget challenge, Japan’s coalition rift clouds leadership prospects, and world leaders convene in Egypt to finalise a Gaza ceasefire.
Busy week for UK data:
August employment figures are due Tuesday, followed by gross domestic product (GDP), trade, and industrial output data on Thursday. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak in Washington during the IMF–World Bank meetings.
Markets steady after volatility:
Asian stocks fell on renewed trade concerns, but US futures rebounded. Gold surged to a fresh record above $4,050.00 an ounce, while oil prices recovered on optimism over potential US-China compromise.
FTSE 100 under pressure
On Friday the FTSE 100 swiftly came off its 9,577 record high and slid to 9,415. Were this level to be fallen through, the late August high at 9,358 may be revisited. The next lower mid-September high at 9,341 may also be hit in this scenario.
Resistance now sits at the 6 October high at 9,517, ahead of last week’s all-time high at 9,577.
