- China responded to President Trump’s additional 10% tariff by applying targeted tariffs on US coal and other goods, as well as opening an antitrust case on Alphabet.
- US President Donald Trump agreed to a 30-day suspension on the proposed 25% tariffs on China and Mexico in exchange for border reinforcement.
- JOLTS Job Openings miss expectations, falling to 7.6 million from 8.09 million in November.
- Traders shift focus to the upcoming US NFP report, a key event for Fed’s policy outlook.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, loses momentum on Tuesday after struggling to revisit the 110.00 level and declined below 108.00. Recent developments include President Trump’s imposition of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, while tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods have been paused for 30 days following negotiations. Investors are concerned that these tariffs could contribute to inflationary pressure within the US economy.
Meanwhile, traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar softens after soft economic data, US tariffs paused
- President Trump has agreed to a 30-day suspension of the proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. This decision comes after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum committed to enhancing border security measures to address concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
- Canada has pledged to deploy advanced technology and additional personnel along its border with the United States. The country will also initiate collaborative efforts to combat organized crime, fentanyl smuggling, and money laundering.
- Mexico has agreed to strengthen its northern border by deploying 10,000 National Guard members to curb the flow of illegal migration and drugs.
- On the data front, JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.6 million in December, missing the 8 million consensus estimate.
- The US labor market remains stable with total separations little changed at 5.3 million in December.
- Equities push higher as the weaker JOLTS report increases expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year.
- The CME FedWatch Tool projects an 86% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its March meeting.
- The US 10-year yield climbs to nearly 4.55%, recovering from Monday’s yearly low below 4.50%.
- The upcoming NFP report for January is set to be the key market catalyst for the US Dollar. The overall consensus expects that job creation cooled off slightly in the first month of 2025.
DXY technical outlook: Bearish momentum builds as 108.50 breaks
The US Dollar Index is losing traction with technical indicators reflecting growing downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, signaling a shift toward bearish momentum. Additionally, the index has slipped below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 108.50, increasing the likelihood of further declines.
If selling pressure persists, the next key support zone lies near 107.80, while resistance remains at 109.00. A sustained move below 108.00 could reinforce bearish sentiment, potentially leading to a deeper correction.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
