After numerous Congressional debates and revisions, the GENIUS Act is now on the verge of becoming law. The bill, which aims to regulate the stablecoin industry across the United States, is widely expected to be signed.
According to representatives from Digital Chamber, a D.C.-based advocacy group for the blockchain industry, the bill approval will likely come before the end of June. Such a move would increase institutional adoption and strengthen the US dollar’s dominance globally.
When Will the GENIUS Act Pass?
Poised for passage, the GENIUS Act is a landmark bill that would federally regulate the US stablecoin industry.
Despite recent disagreements between Republican and Democratic Senators, the bill passed a key procedural vote. Kristopher Klaich, Policy Director at The Digital Chamber, strongly believes in its impending approval.
“I feel pretty strongly that there won’t be more hiccups… I think the industry has been such a strong player in politics for the last couple of years and supporting campaigns… there’s a high cost for members that may be the stick in the mud,” he told BeInCrypto.
According to Taylor Barr, the advocacy group’s Government Affairs and PAC Manager, 53 amendments have been made.
“Majority leader Thune is committed to having what he’s calling a fully open amendment process, which means every single amendment has the full right to go through a debate vote and to have full closure on each amendment. So at the end of the day, that could be a three-week-long process,” Barr told BeInCrypto.
However, Barr clarified that a fully open process with 53 individual debates is unlikely. He expects these amendments to be divided into three or four groups, resulting in a more efficient and abbreviated open amendment process, given that many are duplicative.
If Barr’s estimations are correct, the bill will pass before the end of this month. When it does, the significance will be substantial for the greater crypto industry.
Understanding Stablecoin Impact
Stablecoins are arguably the most globally adopted digital asset. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or altcoins, they provide worldwide access to a stable medium of exchange.
According to a January report by crypto exchange CEX.io, the total stablecoin transaction volume reached 27.6 trillion in 2024, exceeding Visa’s total payment volume and Mastercard’s by 7.7%.
Tether and Circle dominate the market at $151 billion and $59 billion, respectively. Together, they have an 89% market share, according to rwa.xyz.
Their heavyweight presence in global economies makes a bill like the GENIUS Act all the more significant. This is especially true in the context of a debilitated US dollar.
The Dollar’s Waning Influence
The US dollar started the year exceptionally weakly. Two days ago, the US Dollar Index (DXY)—a key measure heavily influenced by the euro—fell nearly 9% to just under 99. The results marked its weakest calendar year opening since at least the mid-1980s.
Faced with this data, along with ongoing trade uncertainties and recession fears, investors are fundamentally re-evaluating the dollar’s role in their portfolios.
This situation and broader de-dollarization efforts by major US debt holders like China and Japan intensify concerns about the dollar’s future.
Data from Ark Invest illustrates this shift. In 2011, these three nations held 23% of the $10.1 trillion in outstanding US Treasury debt.
By November 2024, despite the total outstanding US Treasury debt rising to $36 trillion, their combined holdings had dropped significantly to approximately 6%.
This substantial decrease in holdings by key foreign creditors highlights growing worries about the dollar’s long-term stability and the United States’ ability to refinance its massive debt.
“Dollars are the world reserve currency. Demand for dollars has waned at the sovereign level. Over recent years, the largest purchasers of treasuries are cutting their holdings of treasuries. That is not a good situation for the United States as they try to refinance,” Klaich said.
Klaich added that legislation like the GENIUS Act is crucial:
“In my mind, there’s very little more important than the stablecoin bill being passed from an macroeconomic perspective… If demand for dollars diminishes at the sovereign level, structurally speaking, if that is or can be replaced by demand at a retail individual level, that is a huge boon to the US government.”
The data behind Klaich’s statements seems to back his analysis.
What Role Will Stablecoins Play in Future US Debt Demand?
The stablecoin market is poised for significant growth. According to an April report from Citigroup, the total stablecoin supply could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030. This growth could create a demand for US debt comparable to the historical levels supported by sovereign nations.
The GENIUS Act could facilitate this transition.
“Hopefully, when it passes, demand for stablecoins will explode because there are many companies and banks that are planning to introduce stablecoins that will provide the rails for them to operate at a consumer and business level. So the efficiencies companies and individuals realize will help push that,” Klaich explained.
By serving areas and people neglected or undermined by traditional banking systems, stablecoins could also help counterbalance the global de-dollarization movement.
“It allows anybody in the world to access US dollars. What that affords the US from an economic warfare standpoint is significant,” Klaich added.
With persistent inflation risks, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to buy back significant amounts of US treasuries. Therefore, encouraging stablecoin use allows this market to effectively replace currently ineffective financial mechanisms.
Amendments to the Bill
If the GENIUS Act is implemented correctly, the stablecoin industry could become a valuable financial tool for the US government to ensure long-term support for the US dollar.
The bill underwent a difficult revision process. According to Barr, the process was tedious and politically challenging.
“If you look at all of the progress we’ve made, we’ve worked on this for three Congresses now. We’ve worked on this [through] multiple different leaderships– minority, majority split. So we’re so close. We’ve done all this progress so we can see the finish line. We’re going to get there,” he said.
However, multiple revisions were a prerequisite for its passage to ensure the bill responsibly addressed consumer protection, national security, and market integrity issues.
Klaich noted that these critical concerns were addressed fairly in the legislative process. He emphasized that recent versions of the bill effectively integrated these revisions.
“None of those issues are existential, and they’ve been negotiated into the latest version of the bill that’s being considered right now. I think the changes that have been made are reasonable and acceptable,” he said.
The future will reveal if the bill passes and achieves its desired effect in helping the US overcome its complicated economic reality.
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