Will Dollar General’s Q2 Break The 70% Post-Earnings Drop Pattern?

EMPIRE, LOUISIANA – AUGUST 05: A customer walks into a Dollar General store at dusk in lower Plaquemines Parish on August 05, 2025 in Empire, Louisiana. New Orleans and the Gulf Coast region are preparing to mark the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which made its second U.S. landfall on August 29, 2005, just south of Buras, causing widespread catastrophic damage to lower Plaquemines Parish. Katrina resulted in nearly 1,400 deaths, according to revised statistics from the National Hurricane Center, and remains the costliest storm in U.S. history at around $200 billion in today’s dollars. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Getty Images

Dollar General (NYSE: DG) is set to announce its fiscal Q2 earnings on Thursday, August 28, 2025, with analysts anticipating an EPS of $1.57 and revenue of $10.68 billion. This suggests an 8% year-over-year decrease in earnings, while projecting a 5% increase in sales, compared to the previous year’s EPS of $1.70 and revenue of $10.21 billion. Historically, DG stock has declined after earnings 70% of the time, averaging a one-day drop of 4.2% and experiencing a maximum decline of 32%.

The retailer’s dependence on domestically produced essentials (including food, health, and household goods) indicates that only 4% of its inventory is sourced from abroad, minimizing tariff risk. In Q1 FY2025, Dollar General achieved 5.3% sales growth, 2.4% same-store comparisons, an EPS of $1.78 (exceeding estimates), and a significant increase in cash flow — highlighting its financial and operational strength. Management expects for FY2025 a sales growth between 3.7% and 4.7%, along with a same-store growth range of 1.5% to 2.5%. Dollar General holds a market capitalization of $25 billion, with trailing 12-month revenue of $41 billion, an operating profit of $1.7 billion, and net income of $1.2 billion. See Buy or Sell Dollar General Stock?

For traders focused on events, historical trends could provide an advantage, whether by positioning before earnings or responding to post-release movements. If you are looking for potential gains with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio is an alternative, having outpaced the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Also, check RKLB Stock To $85?

See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

Dollar General’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• Over the past five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, resulting in 6 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns. In conclusion, positive 1D returns occurred roughly 30% of the time.
• However, this percentage drops to 27% if we examine data for the last 3 years instead of the prior 5.
• The median of the 6 positive returns is 5.6%, while the median of the 14 negative returns is -4.2%

Further data regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistical information in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky approach (although not effective if the correlation is low) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify the pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the strongest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Observe that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect stock reactions after earnings. In fact, the pricing might begin before the earnings announcement. The following is some historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of Dollar General’s stock with that of peers reporting earnings shortly before Dollar General. For comparison, returns from peer stocks also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

Explore more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), producing substantial returns for investors.