Macro update
Global stock markets rose strongly amid growing optimism that the 40-day US government shutdown may soon end, after the Senate advanced legislation to fund the government through late January.
US futures climbed and Treasury yields edged higher – with the 10-year at about 4.14% – as sentiment improved despite weak consumer confidence data.
In Asia, equities rebounded: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose ~1.3%, South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 3%, and Indonesia hit a record high as regional shares rallied.
European futures pointed to a strong open: the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX 40 futures climbed about 1.5%, and FTSE futures gained 0.85%, reflecting global hopes over a US deal.
China’s inflation data showed signs of stabilising: producer-price deflation eased and consumer prices turned positive in October, offering a glimmer of improvement for Beijing’s industrial over-capacity challenge.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes from the October meeting revealed increasing policy-maker support for near-term rate hikes – conditional on sustained wage growth momentum.
Nasdaq 100 bounces off support
The Nasdaq 100 underperformed and recorded its weakest week since the sharp post–Liberation Day decline in early April amid the longest government shutdown in history.
Friday saw a minor recovery with a ‘hammer’ forming on the daily candlestick chart. The potentially bullish pattern needs to be confirmed by a daily chart close above Friday’s 25,065 high on Monday, though.
Potential upside targets are the 10 October high at 25,195, the 24 October low at 25,288 and Wednesday’s low at 25,235.
Minor support sits at the 16 October 24,998 high ahead of the 55-day moving average (SMA) at 24,709, the 22 October low at 24,652 and Friday’s trough at 24,604.
