CHONGQING, CHINA – MAY 11: In this photo illustration, the logo of Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi) is displayed on a smartphone screen, with the company’s branding visible in the background, on May 11, 2025, in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT), a company that is developing quantum-compatible chips and photonic hardware for high-performance computing, AI, and cybersecurity, is set to announce its earnings on Thursday, August 14, 2025. Historically, QUBT’s stock has generally shown a positive reaction following earnings reports. Since 2021, the stock has recorded a positive one-day return in 75% of cases, with a median gain of 4.2% and a maximum one-day positive return of 39.3%.
For event-driven traders, there are two primary approaches to capitalize on this historical data:
- Pre-Earnings: Evaluate the historical probabilities and take a position prior to the earnings release.
- Post-Earnings: Analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings release to guide your trading strategies.
Although the results of a conventional company are significantly influenced by their alignment with consensus estimates, quantum computing stocks such as QUBT are an exception. They presently have limited revenue and remain years away from broad commercial applications. As a result, investors frequently focus closely on earnings events for updates regarding the company’s technological advancements, rather than merely its financial outcomes.
Regarding fundamentals, Quantum Computing currently has a market capitalization of $2.2 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company reported $0.4 million in revenue. Nonetheless, it incurred operational losses, with an operating loss of -$28 million and a net income of -$45 million.
That said, if you are looking for potential upside with reduced volatility than standalone stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having surpassed the S&P 500 and yielding returns greater than 91% since its launch. In addition, see – Bigbear.ai: Sell BBAI Stock At $5?
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
QUBT Stock Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded in the last five years, with 12 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were achieved approximately 75% of the time.
- Importantly, this percentage rises to 83% when looking at data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 12 positive returns = 4.2%, and the median of the 4 negative returns = -4.9%
Furthermore, additional data regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below. Also, see – What’s Next For Quantum Computing Inc. After A 3,000% Rise
QUBT 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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QUBT Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not applicable if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
QUBT Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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Consider The Risks As Well
While Quantum Computing’s historical data indicates a potential positive response to its earnings report, investors should recognize the considerable risks involved.
The company experiences a high cash burn rate and operates with a very small revenue base, which is common for businesses in emerging industries. Quantum technology is still years from achieving broad commercial viability, making future revenue streams uncertain.
Additionally, QUBT stock is highly unstable. During the 2022 market downturn, the stock fell sharply by 93% from its peak, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500’s 25% decline. It took until December 2024 for the stock to regain its previous highs. This record of dramatic price fluctuations underscores the significant risk associated with trading or investing in QUBT stock. See – Buy or Sell QUBT stock – for further information.
Alternatively, consider the Trefis RV strategy which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), generating strong returns for investors. Separately, if you are seeking upside with a smoother ride than a stock like Quantum Computing, look into the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
