The investment outlook over the course of 2025 has, in many cases, been quite striking. According to data from the Spanish Association of Collective Investment Institutions and Pension Funds (INVERCO), equity funds in the European country have accumulated an average return of 31.66% in the first nine months of the year. On the other hand, the most conservative investment options have generated average returns below 2%, a level that fails to offset current inflation.
Internationally, the ranking prepared by Morningstar, an American financial services firm, reveals that funds linked to gold and other precious metals have seen gains in recent months that, in many cases, exceeded 100%. This growth has been driven by the global search for havens from political and economic uncertainties. Funds focused on defense in Europe, as well as those focused on Asian stocks, especially in China and Korea, also stood out, with increases of over 50%. On the other hand, exposure to Russia and emerging markets in Eastern Europe has caused losses that often exceed 50%.
The temptation to hop on the bandwagon is understandable. And so is the reluctance. Many stock markets and precious metals are at record highs, and this sparks both enthusiasm and fear. Are there opportunities still ahead? Is it time to scoop up profits and look to other horizons? Most analysts surveyed by EL PAÍS agree that the current economic outlook continues to support risk assets. Yet, they also urge caution.
“Risk assets are moving into narrower territory,” warns Thomas Hempell, the head of Macro & Market Research at Generali Investments. In his view, the strength of the global economy, coupled with the gradual retreat of some extreme risks, continues to provide some support for equities. But he also warns: euro credit spreads are close to their post-global financial crisis lows, while U.S. stock markets are hitting record highs. In other words, some of the optimism for the future may already be reflected in the current price of gold.
At Deutsche Bank, Christian Nolting, global chief investment officer, is also upbeat (albeit with nuances) in his letter from the bank’s latest outlook report: “We are therefore positive on the outlook for corporate earnings and thus for stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic.” At the same time, he anticipates “temporary setbacks,” partly due to the risk of disappointment after a period of high expectations.
The idea that markets are “climbing the wall of worry” is also shared by Mario Montagnani, a strategist at Vontobel, an investment management firm. “Corporate forecasts are optimistic… and the fiscal stimulus and rate cuts expected in 2026 could provide a new boost to earnings,” he summarizes.
“It’s natural for stock markets to experience ups and downs, but history shows that staying invested over the long term usually rewards investors,” Pablo Bernal points out. He’s Vanguard’s country head for Spain. In his opinion, trying to anticipate the market “is almost impossible” and often leads to lower returns, as the best and worst trading periods tend to occur within days of each other.
A recent historical analysis by Duncan Lamont, director of Strategic Research at Schroders, reinforces this thesis: over the last 100 years, the best returns have often occurred after the stock markets reached all-time highs. In fact, since 1926, the market was at an all-time high 31% of the time. “And, on average, 12-month returns following an all-time high being hit have been better than at other times,” Lamont points out.
From Magallanes Value Investors, Iván Martín introduces an essential nuance to the aforementioned points: “A high valuation doesn’t in itself equate to a bubble, just as a low valuation doesn’t guarantee a bargain.” Still, in his opinion, long-term arithmetic is stubborn: when you pay above the value of an asset, it’s reasonable to expect modest returns. And, when buying at a discount, the odds lean toward higher returns. In this regard, Martín emphasizes that Europe, still underrepresented in global indices and with more attractive valuations than the U.S., could offer greater diversification opportunities for investors.
Gold and Asia are glimmering
Another of the year’s big stars is gold. The spot gold price surpassed the famous threshold of $4,000 per troy ounce last week and continues to break new records every day. This year alone, gold has already reached 52 new all-time highs. The cumulative return so far this year is close to 54%, which is already the highest annual return since 1979. In addition to the monetary component, gold has benefited from historic demand from central banks, particularly in China and India, as part of a diversification and de-dollarization strategy.
“Although these figures have already broken records, we don’t see a major downside risk,” Regina Hammerschmid explains. She’s a commodity portfolio manager at Vontobel. In her opinion, all structural factors (a weakening dollar, concerns about U.S. debt and the government shutdown, the Fed’s independence being called into question and elevated geopolitical risks) and cyclical factors (a weakening U.S. labor market, Fed rate cuts and tariff-driven growth concerns) are pushing gold prices higher.
For Claudio Wewel, a currency strategist at Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management, the current dynamic still has room to grow. This is especially the case if there’s an outflow from the cryptocurrency market, with a market capitalization of around $4 trillion, toward traditional assets like gold.
“For now, the best alternative to the dollar is gold, not another currency.” This is according to Ebury, a fintech company specializing in currencies.
Another of the year’s investment phenomena is occurring in Asia, especially in South Korea and China, where several equity funds have doubled in value. According to analysts, expectations of economic growth and the rise of technologies such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors appear to explain much of the surge. However, the experts warn that volatility in this region remains high.
In this regard, the Aberdeen Group’s CIO Peter Branner and Chief Economist Paul Diggle expect Chinese equities, and those of emerging markets in general, to continue performing well. “Equity valuations in these markets remain more attractive than those of developed markets… and the weakness of the dollar should support the gains in these markets,” they assert.
Still, experts emphasize that, in general, and despite the fact that many precious metals, Asian and European stock markets, as well as financial assets are at record highs, it’s always important to be aware that past performance never guarantees future performance.
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