By Yash Dubal
In Britain, 2024 was a tumultuous year for immigration policy. An election coupled with record levels of net migration made immigration one of the most divisive and hotly debated subjects of the past 12 months.
Measures were introduced to reduce numbers which directly affected many Indians who were planning to live, work and study in Britain. Healthcare visa applicants and student visa applicants were banned from taking dependents with them. Revised data showed net migration rose to 909,000 in the year to June 2023. Provisional figures for the year to June 2024 predicted a 20 percent reduction due to these new measures, however.
The new Labour government remains committed to bringing numbers down further. It plans to do so by identifying the skills gaps in the UK workforce being filled by migrant workers and encouraging employers to train domestic workers to fill those roles. A White Paper giving more details on how this policy will be implemented is due early this year.
We do know that the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), which advises the UK government on immigration, will play a key role. It is already reviewing skills shortages in the IT and engineering sectors, and the results of these reviews are likely to contribute to policy changes in the year ahead.
The idea of up-skilling British workers to reduce net migration is flawed. It makes the questionable assumption that there is an untapped reserve of domestic workers waiting to be trained in new skills. That is unlikely. And if those workers can be found, training takes time. For example, on average it takes a minimum of three years to train as a nurse and a minimum of two years to train as an electrician.
According to a report from education think tank Edge Foundation, the number of skills shortage vacancies doubled between 2017 and 2022 to 531,200. There is no reason to assume that the figure has not risen since. That constitutes over half a million workers the Labour Government will need to find and train now, plus those who will be needed to replace retirees, as 1.4 million more people are projected to retire over the next 17 years than will enter the workforce.
For these reasons, I predict that UK businesses will have to continue relying on migrant workers whether the assumed army of domestic skilled workers materialises or not.
Throughout 2025 net migration in the UK will continue to decline as a result of the measures already implemented, but for the next few years at least it will remain high because manpower shortages will continue across a range of sectors. For Indian workers there remains opportunity.
With so many sectors reporting recruitment difficulties, even the higher salary thresholds introduced last year are unlikely to put off employers in traditionally high-wage sectors such as IT and finance. In particular, a government goal to make Britain a global leader in AI technology will lead tech firms to seek out highly skilled IT workers. And as the Heath and Care worker visa is not subject to the same threshold, many migrants will continue to use that as a route to the UK.
Another political factor that will impact Indian migrants is the election of Donald Trump in the US. His aggressive anti-immigration stance advocates for reducing legal immigration and creating ‘American jobs for American workers’. Undoubtedly international migrants, both skilled and unskilled, will find the door to the US closed, or increasingly hard to get through under the Trump administration. The most attractive country in the world for international migrants, according to the Migration Policy Institute, will largely be out of bounds.
Indeed, Indian skilled workers are already reporting difficulties in getting US visas. More will be looking to the UK.
For UK employers, the cost of a certificate of sponsorship will rise to £525. This cost, however, cannot be passed on to the visa holder. Naturalisation costs will also rise to £1,605. The rises are forecast to generate an additional £269 million a year.
A recent paper published by the think tank Policy Exchange proposed creating an auction system for student and NHS visas where the money raised goes into the British health service.
The report also recommended tougher penalties for those employing illegal labour or renting to illegal immigrants in the UK, including granting legal status to illegal migrants who testify against illegal employers or renters. It is unlikely the auction system will be adopted, although capping numbers of visas has not been ruled out.
In summary, through 2025 we can expect further changes to UK immigration policy as the government continues to grapple with high net migration. We may see some visa categories scrapped altogether, or overhauled, particularly categories that have attracted fewer applicants, such as the fast-track Global Talent visa, which was designed to attract international award winners but which attracted just two applicants in 2023.
The strongest work visa category will remain the Skilled Worker visa (which incorporates the Health and Care visa). Numbers are likely to continue to come down, reducing the pressure on the government to make major changes, such as limiting visa numbers in certain sectors. But for employers struggling to fill skilled roles, overseas recruitment will remain attractive, but more expensive.
(Author is Director, A Y & J Solicitors, London, United Kingdom)
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