Diversification is a key tool for dealing with stock price volatility. Of course, the aim of the game is to pick stocks that do better than an index fund. One such company is Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ:ONB), which saw its share price increase 34% in the last year, slightly above the market return of around 34% (not including dividends). However, the longer term returns haven’t been so impressive, with the stock up just 9.9% in the last three years.
Let’s take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they’ve been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Old National Bancorp
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over the last twelve months, Old National Bancorp actually shrank its EPS by 21%.
Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.
Old National Bancorp’s revenue actually dropped 7.1% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don’t provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Old National Bancorp’s TSR for the last 1 year was 39%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Old National Bancorp’s TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 39%. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 5% per year. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Old National Bancorp you should be aware of.
Of course Old National Bancorp may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
