Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq whipsaw after China hits back in trade war, bank earnings roll in

US stocks whipsawed on Friday as consumer sentiment fell and investors weighed the latest trade war development after China hit the US with a retaliatory tariff hike, but signaled it won’t hike duties any further.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) flipped between positive and negative territory. At last read the broad-based index was down 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also seesawed, dropping 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.6%.

China said Friday it will raise duties on imports of US goods to 125%, compared with the 84% previously planned, effective Saturday. The move is in direct response to President Trump’s ballooning “reciprocal” tariffs on China, the commerce ministry said, but it also suggested it will “ignore” any retaliatory US hikes in duties.

SNP – Free Realtime Quote USD

As of 10:37:58 AM EDT. Market Open.

^GSPC ^IXIC ^DJI

Big Wall Street banks got first quarter earnings season going in earnest on Friday, with results rolling in from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and BlackRock (BLK). Their results were closely studied for signs of headwinds from the tariff turmoil. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the US economy is going through “extreme turbulence.”

Trump’s fast-moving tariff policy has whiplashed stocks this week, which saw the major US indexes notch historic gains during Wednesday’s session but then tank on Thursday. Despite that rout, the major indexes are positioned for their best week in months, largely on the back of the mid-week surge.

The volatility has also thrust moves of Treasurys and commodities into the spotlight. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) continued to climb to its highest level since February, touching 4.53%. Meanwhile, the dollar (DX=F) index tumbled, at one point reaching lows not seen since 2022. And gold (GC=F) is once again the “place to be” amid the turmoil, jumping to another record on Friday.

Consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since 2022 in April as the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies were top of mind.

LIVE 18 updates

Fed’s Collins expects to hold rates for ‘longer’

Another Federal Reserve official poured cold water on the notion of near-term rate cuts due to concerns about the inflationary effects of new tariffs.

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:

Read more here.
Bond yields surge (again)

Long-term Treasury yields ripped higher on Friday, capping off one of the most volatile weeks in the bond market in recent memory.

By mid-morning trade, the 10-year yield (^TNX) surged to its highest level since February to trade at around 4.53%, a massive 66 basis point swing from Monday’s low of 3.87%.

It’s been the biggest week for the 10-year since November 2021.

Similarly, the 30-year yield (^TYX) jumped another 8 basis points to trade near 4.93% — also ahead of Wednesday’s highs.

It’s been the biggest week for the 30-year yield since … get ready for this … June 1982.

Read more about this week’s bond market moves here.
Trump administration requested a call from China ahead of latest retaliation

Stocks flipped into the green after CNN reported that the Trump administration privately reached out to Chinese officials ahead of China’s latest retaliation that raised the country’s tariff rate on US imports to 125%.

SNP – Free Realtime Quote USD

As of 10:37:58 AM EDT. Market Open.

^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC

However, China appeared to rebuff that outreach as the US’s global trade provocations have narrowed to primarily focus on the US-China trade war.

From CNN:

Read more here.
Consumer sentiment sinks further as inflation expectations hit highest level since 1981

Consumer sentiment tumbled further in April as the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies were top of mind.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since June 2022. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 57 seen last month and the 53.8 expected by economists.

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in April as one year-inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% from 4.9% the month prior. This marked the highest one-year inflation expectations since 1981. Just three months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed, too, hitting 4.4% in April, up from 4.1% in March.
Why Wall Street’s biggest bear isn’t budging on his calls after Trump tariff pause

The lone bear on Wall Street coming into 2025 is sticking to his bearish call as tariff uncertainty continues to unsettle markets.

Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports:

Read more here.
Stocks fall as China signals it will ‘ignore’ US escalation in trade war

US stocks dropped at the open on Friday after China raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, but hinted it won’t respond to any further escalation from the US.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved down 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was 0.5% lower.

China announced it will increase duties on US imports to 125%, but will “ignore” any further retaliatory hikes from Washington. On Thursday the White House clarified tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 145%. Earlier this week, President Trump paused tariffs on some 75 countries for 90 days.

SNP – Free Realtime Quote USD

As of 10:37:58 AM EDT. Market Open.

^GSPC ^IXIC ^DJI
Oil on track for second straight weekly loss

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but are on track for their second weekly loss in a row as trade wars and OPEC+ spikes

Futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, rose over 0.1%. WTI is trading at the critical $60 per barrel level, while Brent declined to $63 per barrel.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon weighs in on client cautiousness

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon gave it to me straight on the company’s earnings media call this morning when I asked about the level of client cautiousness given everything going on.

Dimon said, “You know, people are pulling back on doing deals, not just big ones, but middle market companies, and being very cautious about investment.”

He (and CFO Jeremy Barnum) added on the call that consumer spending is holding up.
Tesla stock ticks lower after China hikes tariffs again

Tesla stock (TSLA) fell 0.2% premarket after China hit back at the US by raising its tariff on US imports to 125% in the latest escalation of the tit-for-tat trading war.

Bloomberg reports that Tesla has removed the option to purchase new Model S and Model X electric vehicles from its China website. Existing inventory for the two models was still available, however.

The Model S and Model X are two of Tesla’s pricier offerings and are likely to be affected by tariffs. The models are imported into China as Tesla’s Shanghai factory only makes Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

Read more here.
JPMorgan stock edges higher as banks kick off earnings season

Shares of JPMorgan (JPM) and other Wall Street banks posted small gains as investors assessed their first quarter earnings before the bell.

JPMorgan booked a 9% rise in quarterly profit year-on-year, my colleague David Hollerith reports. But its CEO Jamie Dimon warned the US economy faces “considerable headwinds” as the largest US bank set aside 75% more provisions to cover future loan losses. Its stock moved up 1.3%.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Morgan Stanley (MS) all nudged up less than 1% after the banks reported a higher profit but potential risks emerged.
BNY CEO Robin Vince to Yahoo Finance: Uncertainty is the new normal

I caught up quickly with BNY (BNY) CEO Robin Vince this morning after earnings hit the wires.

Here’s what he told me on the topic of a potential recession (emphasis added):
Dollar slides, becomes the latest victim in markets mayhem

The dollar (DX=F) is tumbling as concerns grow that the escalating US-China trade conflict is taking the shine off the greenback as the world’s reserve currency.

Headwinds came from China’s move to raise its US tariff rate from 84% to 125%, starting Saturday.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.
Nvidia estimates get cut

Eyes on Nvidia (NVDA) this morning after Citi analyst Atif Malik cut his estimates on economic concerns. Could be a sign of what is to come on the highflier.

Says Malik:

“We are lowering our GPU units for CY25/2026 by 3%/5% to align with our revised hyperscaler capex model of +35%/+15% spend reflecting mostly lower Microsoft (MSFT) capex concerns and higher risk of pause in enterprise investments amid uncertainty around the global economy due to ongoing trade war.”

Yours truly and Madison Mills will be going more into the call live on Yahoo Finance in the 10 a.m. ET hour.
Tariff uncertainty muddies — and refocuses — earnings season

Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban reports:

This is the Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief. Read more here.
Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
JPMorgan earnings provide first look at Wall Street tariff turmoil

Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith reports:

Read more here.
The dollar lost ground as investors fled US assets, seeking safe havens. The move toward stability chiefly bolstered the Swiss franc, yen, euro, and gold.

Reuters reports:

Read more here.
Gold pushes to new record as tariffs drive haven demand

Gold (GC=F) hit a new high as tariff uncertainty continues to stoke global recession fears. The commodity has seen consistent growth in the year so far, with an increase of more than 20% over the past three months.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.