It wasn’t so long ago that Novo Nordisk (NVO -3.44%), a Denmark-based pharmaceutical company, seemed to be firing on all cylinders. However, the past year has been challenging for the drugmaker.
One reason behind its poor performance over the trailing-12-month period is that it has encountered clinical setbacks. CagriSema, an investigational weight loss medicine, performed well in phase 3 studies, but not quite as well as management had promised. Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk’s biggest rival in this area, Eli Lilly, has registered significant clinical wins that arguably put it ahead in this fast-growing market.
Still, Novo Nordisk hasn’t said its last word yet. The company has recently made significant moves to strengthen its anti-obesity pipeline. Should investors buy the stock following these developments?
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Multiple licensing deals
On June 11, Deep Apple Therapeutics, a privately held biotech company, announced a licensing deal with Novo Nordisk. The former will utilize its proprietary platform, which leverages a virtual library powered by artificial intelligence (AI) to identify promising compounds rapidly. Deep Apple will aim to optimize novel compounds for obesity and other related diseases, and will receive up to $812 million, including an up-front payment and milestones for clinical and regulatory achievements.
While it’s too early to celebrate this deal — it’s still brand-new and hasn’t led to any significant wins yet — it’s worth pointing out that Novo Nordisk has penned several such agreements since the CagriSema setback. One of the more promising of these agreements was with United Biotechnology, a subsidiary of the China-based company United Laboratories International Holdings. Novo Nordisk dished out an up-front payment of $200 million (not to mention potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion) to acquire UBT251, a triple agonist — that is, a medicine that mimics the action of three separate gut hormones: GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon.
Eli Lilly’s Zepbound is the first and only approved dual GLP-1/GIP agonist, and Lilly is also working on its own triple agonist. So, with this acquisition, Novo Nordisk is trying to catch up to its longtime competitor. This move, along with others, has helped expand Novo Nordisk’s weight-management pipeline. Could that help the stock bounce back?
Another reason to buy the stock
In my view, Novo Nordisk’s stock is attractive regardless of its recent shopping spree. Here’s one reason. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19.6 at this writing, while the average for the healthcare industry is 16.2.
Though that means Novo Nordisk is trading at a premium compared to its peers, its financial results justify that difference. In the first quarter, the company’s net sales jumped 19% year over year to 78.1 billion Danish kroner ($12.1 billion), while its earnings per share rose by 15% to 6.53 DKK ($1).
Revenue and earnings growth in that range is above what’s considered “good” for a pharmaceutical company, especially one of this size. Perhaps Novo Nordisk was due for a sell-off — its forward P/E looked extremely high a year ago. However, at current levels, shares now appear far more attractive, given the company’s strong financial results. And when we take into account its pipeline and the recent deals it’s made, Novo Nordisk looks even more promising — the weight-management market is on an incredible growth path.
Other than Eli Lilly, no company should seriously challenge Novo Nordisk anytime soon. In addition to its licensing deals, the Denmark-based drugmaker has promising, internally developed candidates. Novo Nordisk has just announced that it will start phase 3 studies for amycretin, an investigational weight loss product with both oral and subcutaneous formulations; this product delivered encouraging results in early-stage studies. Meanwhile, the company asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve an oral formulation of semaglutide (the active ingredient in Wegovy).
In addition to its core area of expertise, Novo Nordisk has made a point of developing medicines in other fields, and has several promising candidates across various diseases. For all these reasons the stock looks like a buy at current levels, despite the challenges the company has faced in the past year.
