On course to the S&P peak

Still going up
U.S. markets rose Wednesday, with the S&P 500 less than 0.5% from its record high. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 10 basis points to 3.789%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index  climbed 0.21% to close at 478.62, near its record close of 483.44 in November 2021, resuming trading after a two-day holiday.

CopyGPT?
The New York Times has filed a lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI, the company behind generative artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT. The Times’ accusing them of copyright infringement and abuse of the newspaper’s intellectual property. It’s also seeking damages it believes it’s owed for “unlawful copying and use of The Times’s uniquely valuable works.”

Resetting the clock
A U.S. appeals court temporarily paused a ban on imports of Apple Watches, allowing the company to continue selling its Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 during this crucial holiday period. Apple had been banned from selling those watches in the U.S. over an intellectual property dispute with medical technology firm Masimo.

Bitcoin-adjacent rally
Bitcoin has rallied over 150% this year. But that’s not even the best-performing crypto-related asset. Shares of Coinbase, MicroStrategy and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, all of which are tied to bitcoin, have done better than bitcoin itself, soaring more than 300% in value. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency ether jumped almost 7% Wednesday in a catch-up rally.

[PRO] A rally after a streak
Last week, the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive winning week, the first time it’s accomplished the feat since 2017. Market dictum’s that everything that goes up must fall — but if history proves an accurate guide, the S&P’s eight-week winning streak’s a sign that it’ll continue rising sharply next year, according to data analyzed by LPL Financial.

Since last week, the S&P 500 has captured the limelight.

After inching up 0.14% yesterday to close at 4,781.58, the broad-based index’s less than 0.5% away from its record high. With its slow creep up — and a slight detour last Wednesday when the S&P sank 1.47% — it might seem like a frustrating game of will-it-won’t-it.

“The market wants to get this done before the year is out,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

I think, however, the tentative ascent suggests investors are rather wary of what will happen after the peak’s scaled. It’s rather like real life: We tend to feel rather lost once we’ve accomplished our goal, especially one held for so long.

As Stovall puts it, “Once the market does set a new all-time high, it’s probably vulnerable to a post-high pause.”

The uncertainty’s aggravated by the sheer optimism at which markets have priced in rate cuts. Markets think there’s a 74.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut as early as March next year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s despite a bevy of Federal Reserve officials last week pushing back on the idea of rapid slashes.

“Expectations are very high right now,” said Julie Biel, a portfolio manager and chief market strategist at Kayne Anderson Rudnick. “That always makes me nervous because I feel like that can really set you up for heartbreak.”

Detractors may point to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It advanced 0.16% yesterday, and has been continually notching fresh closing highs since mid-December. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.16% and is up 44% this year.

Such shows of strength suggest stocks’ momentum is high, and worries over the S&P stalling after scaling its peak might be overblown. On the flipside, it also implies a “bit of frothiness in the market,” Stovall notes, since 90% of the S&P stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average.

Perhaps that’s all speculation. Markets are still in the thick of the “Santa Claus Rally,” and, so far, it doesn’t seem like anything will dampen their holiday cheer.

And the vista from any peak is always magnificent, and worth a moment of appreciation. The descent — or climb to a taller peak — can come later.