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Oil is now down $20 at $92.79.
All on hopes the war may finally be over, and with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated,” Trump said in a social media post.
And, as noted by CNBC, “Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said Tehran will allow safe passage through the Strait during the ceasefire via ‘coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration to technical limitations. If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.”
Airline stocks are exploding on the sharp drop in oil prices. Delta (DAL) is up 12%, or by $8.40. American Airlines (AAL) is up 11%, or by $1.25. JetBlue (JBLU) is up 9%, or by 43 cents a share. SkyWest (SKYW) is up 7.6%, or by $7 a share, as LUV jumps nearly 13%, or by $4.86. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) is up about 11%, or by $2.71 a share.
All could easily take off even more if the war is over, and if oil can continue to drop.
Markets are rocketing on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a massive pullback in oil prices (oil is now down $20 today).
Just last night, Iran, the U.S., and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire. That sent S&P 500 futures up by 2.6%, or by 173 points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 2.65%, or by $17.45. The Dow is up 2.62%, or by 1,226 points. The Nasdaq is up 3.4% or by 828 points. Gold is up by about $139 at $4,799. Bitcoin is up by $43 at $71,969.
According to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon “for now, for now, has done its part,” as quoted by the Associated Press. “We stand ready in the background to ensure Iran upholds every reasonable term.”
Oil Stocks Reverse Course
As a result, oil is down about $20 at $92.77 after soaring above $112.
With that, energy stocks, like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum, are turning lower. In addition, analysts at Roth Capital just downgraded Diamonback Energy, Permian Resources, Matador Resources, SM Energy, Magnolia Oil and Gas, and Talos Energy.
“These stocks are all near 52-week highs and due to our expectations that front-month oil prices are likely to move lower in the near term and trade closer to $70 per bbl as opposed to $100 per bbl,” analyst Leo Mariani said, as quoted by CNBC. “We think investors should stay more defensive in E&P with lower-beta names in the near term.”
According to JPMorgan, Questions Still Remain
While the two-week truce is great news, there are still plenty of unanswered questions, say analysts at JPMorgan.
“Overnight, the regime has already shifted back to the Global Growth Reboot tape, which is how the year started,” as quoted by MarketWatch. “If this is it – i.e., no prolonged conflict a la Iraq 2 – we can expect markets to look through the noise and this change to persist.”
One of the unanswered questions is how long it’ll take for supply through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normalcy upon reopening. The analysts also said that the passage will never go back to how it used to be, adding, “there will be an accelerated process of constructing infrastructure” to bypass it.
