For many investors, Poland is not the first country they picture when thinking of thriving stock markets. After all, political turbulence has been eating at the country for decades now, and its communist history still casts a long shadow.
But now investors are starting to pay more attention to the Warsaw Stock Exchange, where tremendous growth has been flying under the radar.
Since the start of 2025, the WIG index, Poland’s main stock market index, has grown by around 25%, a staggeringly high number. For context, the S&P is only up around 1.75%, the FTSE 100 is up around 6.5%, and the EURO STOXX 50 is up around 10% in the same time period.
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Some firms listed on the Warsaw exchange have seen growth that towers above the wider market’s already impressive gains. Orlen, a partially state-owned energy firm, is the 32nd largest company in Europe by revenue and has seen its stock price grow by almost 60% since the start of the year.
PZU, a Warsaw-listed insurance company that is also partially state-owned, has seen its stock price grow by around 31% since the start of 2025. A similar story can be told for Dino, one of Poland’s largest supermarket chains, which has also gained around 30% since the year began.
Poland’s strong stock performance isn’t a brand new phenomenon either. In the last five years the WIG index has grown by around 94%, outpacing Germany’s DAX index (up around 89%) and France’s CAC 40 (up around 49%).
The long-term growth figures also compete with America’s stock market. The S&P 500 grew slower than Poland’s in the last five years, up by around 87%, though the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite edged ahead of Poland in the same period, up by almost 99%.
Pawel Majtkowski, analyst at eToro, says the Polish stock market has “surged” this year thanks to “strong economic growth, low valuations and renewed investor interest in Europe post-2023 elections”.
But some doubt has now been cast over whether the rally can last after the knife-edge election of nationalist president Karol Nawrocki on 1 June. Can Warsaw continue its winning streak, or will a new president stifle growth?
Poland’s political landscape has been in flux since 2023
Since the 2023 general election, Poland has been governed by prime minister Donald Tusk and a coalition of liberal parties, brought together before the election to kick out the then-incumbent Law and Justice party (PiS) who had been in power since 2015.
Since 2015, the president of Poland has been Andrzej Duda, a member of PiS, who won the maximum two terms in office. A party man through and through, Duda supported the PiS administration until the party was ejected from government in 2023.
Tusk and his party, Civic Platform, had campaigned on the promise to detoxify the sinews of power in Poland after the previous government had stuffed cronies into independent organisations, including the courts, state-owned firms, and the media.
In the years since, some of this reforming agenda has been realised, while other parts have been disrupted due to political infighting among his coalition and presidential vetoes.
On 1 June 2025, PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki won the presidential election with just 50.9% of the vote compared to the Civic Platform-backed candidate’s 49.1%.
This has worried investors. The WIG 20 index of the 20 largest firms listed in Warsaw fell 2% in the wake of the results.
What is the future for Poland’s stock market?
With a nationalist party candidate once again winning the presidential election, while a liberal party remains in government, some commentators believe that political instability will increase, possibly disrupting the stock market’s growth.
Facing five more years of a PiS presidency under Nawrocki, Tusk’s liberals will have to stomach prolonged political opposition to their reforms. Gone are dreams of a president facilitating the liberal political reconstruction of the Polish state.
What’s more, the election of an opposing party into the presidency shows that Tusk’s already eroding mandate for reform has weakened further. Following the election results, Tusk announced that a vote of confidence will take place on 11 June, hoping to shore up support and breathe new life into his coalition.
Like his predecessor, Nawrocki will have the power of the presidential veto to squash legislation proposed by Tusk and his government, now for the entirety of the Civic Coalition’s remaining term.
Majtkowski at eToro, says the election will “introduce a fresh layer of political uncertainty with potential market implications, dampening foreign investor interest in the Polish stock market as international capital increasingly factors political agendas into risk assessments”.
He adds that though the office of the president has little real influence over economic policy, the results will still “weigh on sentiment in the near term”.
This is partially because of the structure of the Polish stock market, where a large share of companies listed in Warsaw have significant state ownership.
Take Orlen for example – the Polish state has a 49.9% stake in the energy company and is its largest shareholder. PKO Bank Polski, Poland’s largest bank, is also listed in Warsaw and the state holds around a 31% stake in the company.
As a result of such widespread state ownership, Poland’s stock market is “particularly sensitive to political turbulence”, according to Majtkowski, which he says “may affect stock prices and even the financial results of certain firms”.
He further clarifies that Poland’s largest firms are more exposed to this risk, warning the “WIG 20 may be hit harder than the broader WIG”.
Furthermore, the election results have caused a “strong shock” within Tusk’s ruling coalition and liberal voters.
As a result of this, Majtkowski says “we can expect deep and possibly swift changes within the government” with possible implications on the share prices of publicly traded companies with significant state ownership.
What’s more, Majtkowski believes the political uncertainty in Poland has reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in June by the country’s central bank. Higher interest rates will keep the economy constrained as the central bank tries to keep a lid on inflation. Knock-on effects will be felt in the stock prices of Poland’s banks which are a “pillar” of the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
