USD market outlook: With government reopened, can DXY rebuild strength?
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has paused its recovery, stabilizing around the 99.40 region after the U.S. government officially reopened.
This marks a pivotal shift for USD: for weeks, the dollar traded under the weight of missing datasets, unclear Fed visibility, and uncertainty over the fiscal backdrop. Now, with the government fully operational again, the macro lens shifts back toward real economic data, yield movements, and market positioning.
The question now is simple:
Can DXY rebuild strength with clarity finally restored?
From a technical perspective, DXY rejected a key inverse FVG at 99.464 and is pulling back—but this rejection does not invalidate strength entirely. Instead, it positions the dollar at a decision point: either reclaim resistance and push toward 99.742, or break lower and revisit deeper supports.
US Government reopening: The market impact
The government reopening is not just a political event—it is a market catalyst that changes the backdrop for USD significantly.
1. Full data visibility returns
During the shutdown, critical datasets were paused.
Now they return, but with a compressed release window, making upcoming sessions especially sensitive.
This restored visibility is a net positive for the dollar because it lets markets finally price fundamental reality again.
2. Fed guidance regains clarity
The Fed can now speak from complete information instead of uncertainty.
This increases the impact of Fed minutes, speeches, and inflation commentary—elements that historically support USD when macro conditions remain tight.
3. USD confidence premium slowly rebuilds
The reopening doesn’t boost USD instantly, but it does remove a psychological drag.
As markets regain trust in data continuity, the dollar can respond more normally to yields, risk sentiment, and economic surprises.
This is why the title’s question—DXY Strength Incoming?—is valid: renewed macro visibility opens the door for a USD recovery, but price still needs technical confirmation.
Technical outlook
Your updated chart shows DXY reacting precisely from the inverse FVG between 99.464 – 99.374.
Price tapped the upper boundary at 99.464, printed rejection wicks, and pulled back—a sign that the zone is acting as resistance rather than support.
However, DXY has not broken down.
It remains inside the mid-FVG area, showing that the structure is neutral-to-soft, not aggressively bearish.
In other words:
The door for USD strength remains open if buyers can reclaim the invalidation zone at 99.464.
Bullish scenario – Can strength develop?
A USD recovery becomes likely if price can reclaim the inverse FVG resistance.
Bullish requirements
- Break and hold above 99.464.
- Form a higher low above the FVG.
- Build momentum toward external liquidity.
Bullish rargets
- 99.742 (major liquidity pool).
- 99.90 – 100.00 psychological pivot.
- 100.45 if yields push higher and data surprises to the upside.
Why this supports the title
Reclaiming 99.464 would confirm demand stepping back in—exactly the kind of signal required to validate the possibility of “DXY strength incoming.”
Bearish scenario – If strength fails to develop
Should DXY fail to reclaim resistance, the bearish continuation path activates.
Bearish sequence
- Continued rejection at 99.464.
- Return to 99.374.
- Break below the lower edge of the inverse FVG.
- Retest as resistance.
- Downside expansion.
Bearish targets
- 99.25
- 99.10
- 98.95 (external liquidity sweep)
A break below 99.374 removes the possibility of near-term USD strength and shifts the bias decisively lower.
Final thoughts
With the government reopened, the USD’s macro environment enters a new phase.
The shutdown is no longer a drag, and the restored data flow gives markets the clarity they need to price USD direction with confidence.
Technically, DXY is sitting at a critical resistance zone.
If buyers reclaim 99.464, strength is indeed incoming, validating the title’s question.
But without that reclaim, the index risks sliding back into discount and making a deeper correction.
All eyes now turn to the incoming backlog of U.S. economic releases as the next catalyst.
