On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) debuted to the public, giving the average retail investor their first opportunity to directly own a piece of the company. While shares opened at $150 that day, many investors had difficulty filling their initial orders, according to a CNBC report.
By June 16, the SpaceX stock price had shot up to $225.64 per share before closing that day at $211.39. After that, however, it may have felt like a roller-coaster ride for anyone who has held on to their shares. As the excitement from the initial public offering wore off, the stock price closed at $108.27 on Aug. 5.
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Since then, however, the stock price rallied back, closing at $151.21 on Sept. 11, basically right back to where it started on June 12. As for where SpaceX’s stock price may head next, investors can review analyst price targets. While those forecasts are not a guarantee of future stock prices, they can offer guidance for an investment decision, highlighting whether the risk may be worth the reward.
The bear case for SpaceX
According to CNN, of the 41 analysts who cover SpaceX, 76% rate it a buy, 17% rate it a hold, and 7% a sell. From that group, the lowest price target over the next 12 months is $75.
We’ll use the Sept. 11 closing price of $151.21 to determine what a $5,000 investment would be worth if shares sank that low. At that price, $5,000 would yield an investor a little more than 33 shares through fractional investing. If, by September 2027, the SpaceX stock price were to trade at $75, that $5,000 investment would be worth approximately $2,479.
There are a few factors that could send shares that low, ranging from a broad market sell-off or a sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks to worrisome performances in SpaceX’s next few earnings reports. SpaceX is still a money-losing company, having just reported in its 2026 second-quarter earnings report that it lost $541 million. While that was better than its $1 billion net loss in the prior-year period, it was still a loss.
In addition, SpaceX continues to spend heavily, particularly on its AI division. In 2025, SpaceX spent $12.7 billion on its AI unit, $4.1 billion on its connectivity segment, and $3.8 billion on its space division. In the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX’s capital expenditures totaled $18.3 billion, with its AI segment accounting for $15.8 billion of that total.
